“Having rescued the economy from damage done by the Coalition and stabilising government debt, the ALP is polling well for a second term in office.”
- An interesting take from Koukalas from back in July. Still valid?
“Having rescued the economy from damage done by the Coalition and stabilising government debt, the ALP is polling well for a second term in office.”
Six months is a long time in politics, and Albo’s popularity has slipped considerably since then. A lot of those mid-suburban seats that Labor unexpectedly swept in the last election will be up in the air, and electoral funding reforms are likely to hit the teals hard, to the conservatives’ advantage.
IIRC July was also at the start of the CFMEU allegations, before the corrupt government administration came into effect.
The CFMEU had around 125,000 members as of a year ago, and obviously we can’t assume they’ll all follow their leaders’ advice and swing lefter-than-Labor but having seen the huge presence of other union members marching along side them and having seen the former Labor supporters in my union express their shock and betrayal, there’s a real chance of that big chunk of the labour movement abandoning Labor.
The observation I found most interesting here is obvious but hadn’t occurred to me. That is that the RBA is going to find it increasingly difficult to justify not reducing interest rates going into the election. As much as that has almost nothing to do with the government if voters are feeling economic pressures lifting and the ALP can get some media traction with it they’ve got a chance.
Those electoral funding reforms don’t come into effect until after the next election IIRC.
It will be interesting to see if the Teals revert to Libs or if they can hold or even expand their footprint.
i really wish particularly in brisbane teals would run against the greens in the inner city, feel like a teal/labor qld would be best