I think it’s important to remember how/why our most recent leaders (before Albo) were elected.

Abbott was only (just) elected because the voters got the shits with the Labor Party’s Rudd-Gillard-Rudd circle jerk before - surprise, surprise - the Libs started also started doing their own Brutus-to-Caesar act.

That fuckwittery ended up giving us Morrison’s first term (winning the multiple spill-wank that ultimately ousted Turnbull), whose actual elected second term was when he ran against Bill Shorten. Arguably, any train station meth-head could have beaten Shorten just by having - y’know - a policy. Man was invisible.

My point is, up until we got Rudd, most of our PMs played the long game, regardless of what it meant for their own careers. For example, Howard managed to get both sides to vote in favour of gun reform after Port Arthur, even though that meant some senators were committing political suicide by supporting it. That was in '96, at the very beginning of Howard’s near-12 year stint in the top job. Proof that we all used to value long-term vision over short-term politics.

We haven’t had a single leader (either in office or opposition) with the same long-term vision ever since. It’s all about the next election, and the fastest way to win it is to appeal to the populist base. Which brings us to the current head-kicking potato the Libs have in charge.

I definitely agree regarding your fears on the majority’s views on Trumpist bullshit. Something about wankers like Dutton speaking inside thoughts out loud is helping people feel they have license to do the same. I really do hope we’re better than that here…

If mainstream acceptance of progressive ideas collapses, Dutton will sweep in in a landslide not seen since Howard. And anecdotally it looks like it’s happening: the broad popular rejection of the Aboriginal recognition referendum suggests that there’s a mood of having had a gutful of progressive ideas. Which may be an illusion caused by Murdoch/Rinehart’s command of the media, but Albo having conceded on the issue and playing small-target I-can’t-believe-it’s-not-LNP politics isn’t helping.

Another thing to watch for: Greens support collapsing outside of the core, with them losing seats.

With worldwide inflation post COVID it’s been a shitty time for incumbent governments world wide. There’s been a change of power in every single western election this year.

And the simple question the opposition can ask is: are you better off today than 4 years ago?

People eat that shit up.

“the Australian public” is 23 27 million people from different backgrounds, in different environments, facing different stresses.

There is no cohesive identity, just human drives. We are animals, often very gentle and nice animals, but we are animals. We carry the heritage of our ancestors. Fear and doubt, fear of the other, selfishness these are all drives we have and they are easy to play into. Of course it will work, trump isn’t a wizard, the rise of fascism is a systematic problem.

The question is will someone else use a more effective political strategy? Neoliberal politics largely hasn’t been able to because it is neoliberal ideologies which have lead to this world where people are noticing life get harder each year and the upper rungs of society become increasingly unattainable.

“be happy with what you have peasant, at least we won’t do purges” is just… deeply uninspiring.

And Howard, multiple times.

Can Dutton waffle incoherently for long enough to slot those slogans in without people noticing or understanding them? I’m sceptical. He might be an evil potato monster hell bent on setting up a potato based junta with him as the potato bake supreme, but I don’t think his brain has enough mash to achieve a true trumpian waffle.

The dude is never gonna be PM… he couldn’t pull it off last election as he is so unlikable, and has also the teals to battle.