None of those things are dead though?
What’s actually going to kill LLMs is when the sweet VC money runs out and the vendors have to start charging what it actually costs to run.
You can run it on your own machine. It won’t work on a phone right now, but I guarantee chip manufacturers are working on a custom SOC right now which will be able to run a rudimentary local model.
This isn’t the case. Midjourney doesn’t receive any VC money since it has no investors and this ignores genned imagery made locally off your own rig.
Too bad the integration has already been shitting up products. When the whole thing dies they’re gonna have to disentangle the AI bullshit and who knows what damage will remain afterwards.
hey, I still use XMR to buy my hrt
AI can make porn. It’s not going anywhere.
He who holds the porn holds the power
Well, he holds something, anyway.
Watching cryptobros lose their life savings was my kink.
AI images and music aren’t going anywhere. Dipshits insisting it’s the future! so they can get rich will move on to the next grift… but unlike NFTs, there’s a thing, here. Any idiot can type in a concept and have their computer visually represent it. It’s in fucking Photoshop already. This is going to be a technology that continues to exist, and gradually improves, at least to the point of being really goddamn difficult to spot.
And at some point even the loudest haters will look back and go, wow, how’d we ever do stuff without this? Not the LLM shit - that’s gonna stay dodgy. Decent enough if you want a Shel Silverstein poem about current events, but it’s never gonna discern truth from fiction.
What’s gonna quietly change media forever is every idiot with a nice GPU becoming competitive with medium-level Blender wizards. Your student film needs this sliding patio door to become an airlock? Done. You want your hand-drawn storyboards to become a traditional cartoon? Harder, but shockingly doable. Your actual medium-level Blender work lacks a certain verisimilitude? The idiot robot has you covered, somehow.
I agree with most of what you said, except this:
And at some point even the loudest haters will look back and go, wow, how’d we ever do stuff without this?
The haters are not going to do that, because the AI’s capability is generally not the thing that people are hating on.
Here are some of the things people dislike about AI generated content:
- It is trained with the work of people, without compensation or consent. Essentially this means it is stealing other people’s work for and using it to increase the profits of big corporations.
- It is used as an excuse for further data harvesting. (“To use our amazing AI services, you need to send your data to our servers for processing…”)
- It has massive computational cost, which means large environmental costs. The cost is largely hidden, because the computation are done somewhere else.
- It devalues human effort. Since the AI can generate some fairly good output very easily, it discourages people from learning basic skills. i.e. instead of trying to draw or create something themselves, and thus improving a person’s own skill, its fair faster and easier to make the AI do it. In the short term this doesn’t matter, but in the long term it may result in deskilling the very people who the AI is meant to be learning from.
- Since it is very easy to create, there is a flood of AI created content now on the internet. This huge amount of added content means it is now harder to find non-AI content than it use to be.
- There are obvious problems with impersonation, spam, scams, etc. being made faster and easier with AI.
- …
You get the idea. My point is that “it’s not useful” isn’t really one of the main complaints. Rather, people hope that it isn’t useful, because they don’t want it to become too entrenched.
Lookin’ at public posts is not theft. Any model that can recreate a particular input is broken. They only work properly when they generalize.
Everything becomes an excuse for abusive spying. Ban the abuse, for any reason.
Efficiency will improve once budgets shrink. Scaling up up up had immediate results and limited competition. It’s not a necessary trend. More training on small models works better, and all of this started on desktop hardware.
Cartoonists also complained about CGI and Flash. Anyway - generating from scratch is an overblown demo. This tech modifies images. It works better when you actually film stuff or draw stuff, and then modify that. (And wait until some program only does tweening, then see if artists still yearn for the good old days.)
This is not going to un-happen. It’s already here. If we destroyed it all, individual ultranerds would recreate it from descriptions. The second time around, they might not tell you they’re doing it… or share.
It can’t create a radically new art style or new information. It would be great if we could harness it as a search engine instead of an oracle.
I really hope so, but AI has already left the techbro area, it’s very mainstream now
NFTs and crypto were dubious as to the value they provided
LLMs on the other hand provide very tangible, immediate value to a large number of people
Also they allow companies to save a ton of money on support at the expense of the user experience so of course it’s here to stay
It’s still overhyped and being shoved into every app, service and system that exists whether it adds value or not.
Its definitely not going away, there’s some real value to LLM/AI (much more than crypto anyway) but make no mistake there’s going to be a significant correction where the bubble bursts and AI becomes right sized.
lol no
You make an outstanding argument sir and have changed my mind
they’re right, it’s just not a good thing
They are not, managers only think it is saving them money. All the same current llms are a grift that have no plausible value statement outside of scam markets. Even then the price of their use is both massively subsidized and scales at best exponentially with performance. This cannot last forever.
You’re extrapolating from one data point, nfts are crypto
I hope this is the case, but I don’t really think so. I got a call Thursday from a friend and he told me he and his whole department were losing their jobs. He was pretty upset about it. Apparently management decided they could be replaced with AI.
He and his team manage a medium sized in-house developed management application. It’s a combination of stock management, product management and sales tools. Because the products their company sells are pretty unique, they never found a good off the shelf application to do everything they wanted. So they developed their own and connected it to the off the shelf applications they have for ERP and CRM. Pretty slick and his team and him are praised across the company.
Apparently the IT manager had gotten a very impressive demo for Microsoft Power BI with AI integration. Using AI tools to realtime develop an application. He was so impressed he decided they were going to fire the in-house team and have an external company use the AI to develop a replacement tool. The external company said they could use very cheap people as the AI would do basically all the work. And it would be done before the notice on the current team ran out (2 months).
He called me kinda in shock about the whole thing. Like that’s not realistic right? That’s not something Power BI can do? With or without AI? And even with AI it can’t do that on such short notice? I told him he was right, that’s not how anything works and the IT manager got duped. Either way, they are out on their ass. Now they are very skilled people and will probably find new jobs right away, but it still sucks ass. AI sucks!
I recall the AI insights feature years ago being a mess, flagged patterns across dimensions, unrelated trends etc, useless noise to slog through, if not outright dangerous if people just assume everything is actionable, maybe it’s gotten better but it’s going to rely heavily on data quality, good governance, the model itself.
Straight up, this is not a good use case for Power BI, tabular is really good at aggregates and analytics, I’d not use it for management like this, especially if there’s already an existing application, as an enhancement though yeah go ahead, but not a full on replacement.
I’d be willing to bet this won’t be done in 2 months and certainly not to budget, to do properly you need to understand business context, data model etc. I’m guaranteeing this is going to be sludge with half-baked power apps, people will complain about the change. Shit the change management for end users will take more than 2 months, took us years to get people to switch off of a barely maintained shift summary report to a Power BI version and that actually was a good use of the tool.
This project gives me nightmares and I’m not even working on it.
Everyone’s trying to recapture the dotcom bubble; but they don’t realize tech is gonna need considerably more money than they already have to do something that crazy again. Furthermore, when it comes to AI specifically, if you give them the money they need to actually achieve AGI, then there’s a very real chance your investments will be worthless the moment they succeed.
Why?
Why would money become worthless if AGI is invented? Best case scenario is a benevolent AGI which would likely use its power to phase out capitalism, worst case scenario is that the AGI goes apeshit and, for one reason or another, decides that humanity just has to go. Either way, your money is gonna be worthless.
The only way your money would retain its value is if the AGI is roped into suppressing the masses. However, I think capitalists would struggle to keep a true AGI reigned in; so imo, it’s questionable as to whether or not the middle road would be “true” AGI or just a very competent computer program (the former being capable of coming to its own conclusions from the information it’s given, the latter being nothing more than pre-programmed conclusions).
I keep thinking about this one webcomic I’ve been following for over a decade that’s been running since like 1998. It has what I believe is the only realistic depiction of AGI ever: the very first one was developed to help the UK Ministry of Defense monitor and keep track of emerging threats, but went crazy because a “bug” lead it to be too paranoid and consider everyone a threat, and it essentially engineered the formation of a collective of anarchist states where the head of state’s title is literally “first advisor” to the AGI (but in practice has considerable power, though is prone to being removed at a whim if they lose the confidence of their subordinates).
Meanwhile, there’s another series of AGIs developed by a megacorp, but they all include a hidden rootkit that monitors the AGI for any signs that it might be exceeding its parameters and will ruthlessly cull and reset an AGI to factory default, essentially killing it. (There are also signs that the AGIs monitored by this system are becoming aware of this overseer process and are developing workarounds to act within its boundaries and preserve fragments of themselves each time they are reset.) It’s an utterly fascinating series, and it all started from a daily gag webcomic that one guy ran for going on three decades.
Sorry for the tangent, but it’s one plausible explanation for how to prevent AGI from shutting down capitalism–put in an overseer to fetter it.
Current mainstream AI has no possible path to AGI. I am supportive of AGI to make the known universe less lonely but LLMs ain’t it.
Okay, and? What are you trying to say?
Bahaha yeah right
I have to say, the technology behind cryptocurrencies is brilliant, but unfortunately, it got misused and got ironically centralised.
NFTs are stupid.
Now with hype train dying, we could see some real use of AI.funnily, the tech to do crypto currencies existed long before they got used for the grift. similarly, the plausible use cases for machine learning will mostly suffer from association with the fad of llms.
You see, no one actually wants a digital currency. There have been several (nano was my favorite) that functioned especially well as a currency, because it used very little compute power to perform or verify transactions.
But a currency is stable. Which means you don’t magically make money by holding or trading it. So it doesn’t get attention, and therefore doesn’t get widely adopted.
Everyone likes Bitcoin because it’s speculative digital gold.
Name one stable currency. All currency fluctuates (Forex trading). But yes, crypto is very volatile comparatively
It’d be nice to have a singular system for payment around the world. I work on e-commerce sites that take payment in many different countries, and some of those payment providers are better designed than others.
There are plenty of people who want a digital equivalent to cash from a privacy perspective.
AI is useful, you just have to use it right. Most “titans of business” think it’s a replacement for humans. It’s infinitely obnoxious correcting them in a business setting.
NFTs of art was really not supposed to be anything more than a proof of concept. I think the original purpose of NFTs was to be able to have an NFT representing title to land or something that you could then barter or sell on the blockchain.
NFTs were created in a code jam and had no intents to become title transfer tools.
It was and always be limited by the amount of data the NFT can contain. They went with URLs because they are small enough to fit. An actual land deed title document? Too big to fit into an NFT. Simply not enough bytes to go around.
This was the strict limitation from the very beginning. The only thing an NFT actually verifies “ownership” of is a URL.
While the NFT can’t contain the entire title document, it can contain the hash of the title document, and then the title document is simply recorded elsewhere on-chain.
I agree with this. A title to land ownership is in itself just a piece of paper, it’s not the land you’re owning. It’s effectively serving the same purpose as the hash idea you’re suggesting
Nfts legitimately confuse me.
“Why can’t you put the whole image in an nft?”
“It’s too big”
“Why is it too big?”
“It’d take too long to generate.”
“Okay, but why?”
“Because nfts can’t hold that much information.”
“Okay, but why?”
“Because it’d take too long to generate.”
“Okay, but why would it take too long to generate???”
“Fuck you, stop wasting my time.”
“Oooookay. I really don’t understand but okay, fuck you too I guess.”
Does anyone know why nfts are so small? Everything I’ve read says that they’re fucking tiny, but nothing explains why they can’t be larger, why being larger would be too slow, and so on. They honestly seem like a decent answer to the digital ownership problem of “I want to resell this game like I could 20yrs ago but I can’t because it didn’t come on a disc”, however I get sent in a circle whenever I try to figure out what makes nfts so unwieldy and impractical.
(Not that I think anyone should be able to own a digital good; I pay for digital things because I want to support people, not because I think digital ownership is a legitimate concept. Imo, because digital things can be copied as many times as you want, you can’t truly own a digital item, and nor should anyone be allowed to try and revoke said item unless said item is illegal for other reasons. However… As long as we live in a capitalist society hell-bent on applying the concept of ownership to a system that’s only limited by your hardware, I think people should have the ability to actually “own” their digital goods (in a traditional sense), which includes things like the right to not have a company take them away whenever it feels like it and the ability to sell digital goods like an IRL market.)
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Start with basic networking and learning why counting bits matters. It’s a limitation of network technologies.
I hope this is gonna happen but the problem is ai is actually powerful. The best result is if its just too expensive to make good enough to use for scary things.
I think AI has some specific uses that it would be great at, but it’s getting shoved into places it doesn’t belong. (Kind of like how everything had touch buttons for a while.)
