I have no idea about William Hill. But the odds they describe sound about right to me, and the Nate Silver thing and the summary of Trump’s speech sound informative

inb4 BIDEN COPIUM HAHAHA etc and etc

      • PunnyName@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        If your vote didn’t matter, try wouldn’t be trying to make it harder (or blocking efforts to make it easier).

        VOTE

        • knightly the Sneptaur@pawb.social
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          5 months ago

          Please do explain how the necessity of further action “makes it harder to vote”.

          If people are so pathologically demand-avoidant that asking them to do more than just vote makes them stop voting then yelling at them to vote isn’t going to help either.

      • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
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        I’ve basically given up worrying about federal politics; I STILL VOTE IN FEDERAL ELECTIONS, but it’s clear they’re too solidly captured by special interests to do much there. I’ve shifted my focus to local/municipal politics and found a lot more success there.

    • Delusional@lemmy.world
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      Yup the idiots will still vote for him no matter what happens. Aliens could pop out of his skull and claim they’ve been operating him all along to destroy the earth and they’d still vote for him.

  • Sanctus@lemmy.world
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    You think everyone is just tired of this shit? Both these dudes are older than my grandfather when he died. I am fucking tired boss. It shouldn’t be this crazy just to get sensible candidates who are actual human beings. It really shouldn’t.

    • mozz@mbin.grits.devOP
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      If only the well wasn’t poisoned with REPLACE BIDEN NOW OR WORLD WILL END ALSO KAMALA SUCKS bullshit, 5-10 times every hour, some of it coming yesterday still with fresh Cyrillic in its video description, we could have an adult conversation about what a good Democratic strategy would be, so that the end of the world doesn’t get elected

    • Diplomjodler@lemmy.world
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      5 months ago

      Absolutely correct. But even if the choice is a shitty one it’s also a very easy one. If you want fascism, vote for Trump. If not, vote for Biden.

      • mozz@mbin.grits.devOP
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        5 months ago

        Or whoever the Democratic nominee is

        There’s a perfectly reasonable conversation to be had about replacing Biden being a better strategy. 10 seconds of thinking will lead one to realize that figuring out the strategy, and then switching to it, is way better than dumping Biden and then figuring out the strategy afterwards. And, it’s notable that all the same outlets who are openly hostile to democracy in the United States were the ones that were pushing so hard on the backwards version of the strategy, until the more gullible parts of the Democratic Party apparatus eventually picked it up and started running with it.

        The forward strategy is still fine. The loud preemptive drumbeat of hard criticism of Kamala that is now emerging, though, should hopefully serve as a big loud blaring fucking wake up call to anyone who is sincerely interested in defeating Trump who is still echoing the backwards version.

        • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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          I’ve said it before I’ll say it again. I’m voting for Kamala but it’s not clear she’s better than Biden as a strategy.

          But what is clear is that Kamala is better than nearly everyone else the Democrats can crown between today and the DNC. We only have a 4 months before the election and Kamala is the only one who was actually campaigning at all.

          So if we replace Biden, it’s almost purely to give Kamala a running mate. That’s about it, and these value in this.

          • mozz@mbin.grits.devOP
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            5 months ago

            Yeah. To me the only options with any level of realistic viability are:

            1. Biden
            2. Harris
            3. Contested convention, someone with a baseball bat in hand talks firmly to the DNC about not fucking everything up with their foot on the scales like they did in 1968 and 2016, and see what shakes out of an actually fair process

            Anything else is nonsense. I have no real ironclad feelings about which of those options is best, although I lean towards 1 or 3, but the DUMP BIDEN RIGHT NOW, NOW NOW NOW, DON’T THINK ABOUT IT BOY DON’T ASK QUESTIONS JUST DO IT OR ELSE YOU DOOM AMERICA AND IT’LL ALL BE YOUR FAULT idea doesn’t appear in that list. To me.

            • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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              Yeah. I’m not against removing Biden (even if I think keeping Biden is the best option). I’m just against a brainless, plan less removal of Biden.

              I’ve pointed out how Liberals rallied in 2011 for Occupy Wall Street only for Republicans to win in 2012, 2014 and 2016. People need to think about politics of they ever want to get ahead.

              It’s not sufficient to just get together in a large rally. We need actual votes.


              I feel like #2 and #3 will likely lead to Kamala. I’m up for an open and fair convention even if Kamala isn’t selected.

    • Freefall@lemmy.world
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      5 months ago

      I’m not voting for either candidate, I am voting for the people around Biden and against people that support P2025. Pretty simple.

      • Grandwolf319@sh.itjust.works
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        5 months ago

        As someone who didn’t think Biden was a good choice in 2020 I fully agree, his administration seems to actually make things better!

    • Cryophilia@lemmy.world
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      If a hypothetical person with all your favorite attributes got elected, after 2 years of propaganda you’d be complaining about how awful they are.

      • Sanctus@lemmy.world
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        Idk the Drop Biden propaganda isn’t really landing with me, and I dont do any other media besides Lemmy. Plus, working in construction has me surrounded by Trumpets everywhere and its not convincing me at all. I’m not immune by any means, but I’m not a fair weather fan either.

    • jj4211@lemmy.world
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      5 months ago

      The answer is no one knows. If you care, vote and don’t be complacent. Even if the news decides they think they know, they still don’t know.

      • emax_gomax@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        In a race to the bottom I never bet against trump. Literally if Biden stops talking today I bet he’d have a better chance of winning by the end of it.

    • normalexit@lemmy.world
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      5 months ago

      The person losing more is the one that most recently opened their mouth and reminded voters who they are.

    • gamermanh@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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      5 months ago

      While it looks like half the country is split between this dipshits, in reality the majority of Americans agree on a shockingly high number of issues.

      One of those issues is that both options are fucking awful, so who’s “losing” harder is matter of witchcraft at the moment as things violently spiral into the ridiculous

      • Asafum@feddit.nl
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        in reality the majority of Americans agree on a shockingly high number of issues.

        And it’s exactly why I say this every single day in some comment or another: I FUCKING HATE PROPAGANDISTS!!!

        What you said is absolutely true and without the likes of Fucker Carlson, Sean Hamface, and Laura Inbread, we’d actually have some fucking semblance of unity and solidarity… But no, we get divide and conquer… Hate hate hate hate. Fox primetime is literally the “two minutes hate” from 1984 with an ever changing Goldstein.

      • CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world
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        Biden is not really that awful as an option, as far as it goes. If he is in decline, he steps down after the win. It’s not like Biden as a choice is comparable to donnie as a choice. They are night and day.

        Now, trying to sell Biden as a product to “independents” (aka, the low info) because we sell politicians like the way we sell consumer goods like fizzy sugar water - that’s not so great, since the bothsiderists keep acting like they are equally bad options.

    • InternetUser2012@lemmy.today
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      Just vote, volunteer to help give rides to people that wouldn’t be able to vote without it. If everyone votes, there will be no chance for the racist rapist with 34 felonies that has said on record that he will be a dictator.

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      No one has voted yet so no one is ahead or behind. It’s all speculation and a waste of time

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      Losing implies that something happened. Like in a race a contestant is visibly ahead, or in gambling you have more chips than someone else or your money is all gone.

    • Sho@lemmy.world
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      Same, it’s like bad actors are muddying the waters on purpose, ignore it all. Vote

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        The polls are literally telling you that it’s neck and neck right now. If this isn’t clear to you, the problem isn’t the polls.

        • JimSamtanko@lemm.ee
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          I don’t cast my vote based on polls polls and no one should. They’re full of shit. Everyone needs to vote like they don’t exist.

          • EatATaco@lemm.ee
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            They’re full of shit.

            While I agree that people should vote like they don’t exist, the reality is that they do a good job of giving you an idea of where voters stand. They were historically accurate in 2022.

            If you think “they’re full of shit” it’s almost certainly a problem of understanding rather than with the polls themselves. Considering you haven’t really made an argument as to why, I can’t know for sure.

    • John_McMurray@lemmy.world
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      They’re lying cause Trumps winning to the point high level democratic members are openly admitting Bidens gonna lose. All this is pitiful window dressing.

  • Bluefalcon@discuss.tchncs.de
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    Look what was the big things coming out of the RNC.

    1. A bulldog
    2. The troll that protects the water hazards on Trump’s courses (Kimberly Guilfoyle).
    3. The shocked remains of Florida pedo (Matt Gaetz).
    4. Racist, washed up, whats to fuck his daughter (Hogan).
    5. The UFC (Dana White).
    6. Shit kid rock song
    7. The most gay entrance you could do outside of Vegas or Broadway (Trump).

    No one cares except MAGA country. It is boring.

  • RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world
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    The people that vote for trump don’t care.

    Christ, they wear diapers and put fake ear bandages on. You think they give a damn about what’s actually right?

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    Sorry but “BIDEN COPIUM HAHAHA” is right.

    The William Hill odds of a Trump victory in November lengthened from 2/5 (71.4 percent) on Thursday before his convention address to 8/15 (65.2 percent) on Friday.

    Donald Trump remains the overwhelming favorite

    This same agency is saying Kamala Harris already has better odds of becoming President than Joe Biden does, even without a decision to resign from Biden.

    • mozz@mbin.grits.devOP
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      Paying out higher (better) odds means you think they’re less likely to win

      Edit: They were initially confused about how betting odds work, now they’re confused about how outcomes work.

      William Hill is saying that Trump has a 65% chance to win, and the Democrat has roughly a 35% chance to win, and that Democrat is much more likely to be Kamala than Biden. There is absolutely no conditional involved in this odds presentation that would imply who has a better chance of beating Trump, as separated from the question of how likely the Democrats are to replace Biden.

      • ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works
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        The article says P(Biden wins) < P(Harris wins). It isn’t saying anything directly about P(Biden nominated) or P(Biden wins | Biden nominated) but it does imply that P(Biden nominated) is low.

      • LibertyLizard@slrpnk.net
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        I think the chances of Harris vs Biden winning are incorporated into this percentage. But it doesn’t separate out the factors such as likelihood of being the nominee vs likelihood of winning the GE. So we can’t say anything definitive about that without more information on how it’s being calculated.

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    Okay, Democrats, what’s the play here then? Better ride this news with some really strong moves to amplify the impact. Don’t fuck it up, PLEASE.

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      Expecting the Dems to do a 180 and actually not fuck up is a bold expectation. JFC we need more agile leadership…

    • Asafum@feddit.nl
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      One of my favorite quotes about Democrats (other than that they form circular firing squads) is that “Democrats will never pass up the opportunity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.”

      :(

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    Newsweek seems to be the only publication making these claims. We’ve had some 2-3 weeks of Newsweek reportage of the Trump campaign floundering, its wheels falling off, and it circling the drain. Given Newsweek’s right-wing ownership and recently poor reputation for facts, it does feel like an op (perhaps to lull progressive campaigners into a false sense of security?)

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    So I think we are in a post 2016 news cycle so even though an assassination attempt is kind of historic, it’s not that big of a deal in 2024 when I’m sure next week we will get another huge earth shattering news. Maybe this time Putin finally croaks.

    • boogetyboo
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      I’m an insomniac and the news came through while most of my country would be asleep. There’s been news I’ve woken my sleeping partner up for, because it’s been historic or 'in the run '.

      Jan 6 was one of those days.

      This wasn’t. And yeah it had just happened and then the event was over so, nothing really ongoing. But I literally read what I needed to about it and moved on.

      On reflection, America has used up all my sense of surprise, and I’m ashamed to say, compassion for them.

      I watched Sandy Hook unfold and cried. I remember that day. But the many, many that came after? Just another headline.

      I’m not hyper focused on the news; there’s plenty going on in my country of interest or more relevance to me.

      But I think it’s odd that the attempted assassination of an American President in my lifetime… Just isn’t surprising or interesting to me. I just have a ‘well that tracks for that place’ attitude. Putin? Now that would be something.

      • mozz@mbin.grits.devOP
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        But I think it’s odd that the attempted assassination of an American President in my lifetime… Just isn’t surprising or interesting to me.

        Not here either.

        I have heard one person who wasn’t some friend/family I was specifically talking to about it, even mention it. And she clearly didn’t give a shit. She referenced it for like 5 seconds talking about something else and then never returned to the topic.

        It’s fucking wild. I think everyone has just tuned out of the crazy shit politics news machine… which of course brings its own brand of danger. ☹️

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          Literally nobody, except some pundits, has mentioned it at all. Biden said “feels bad man” and tried to call the family of the guy who died. That’s it.

          I think this may be the better timeline because he gets like 1% of the sympathy of a normal president and all of the PTSD. If he died, he doesn’t get to lose the election.

          Fucking vote.

  • wieson@feddit.org
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    5 months ago

    So when he droned on about Hannibal lecter, was he trying to talked about Hannibal Barca?

    (I don’t want to listen to the speech)

    • Furbag@lemmy.world
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      No. He literally thought that Hannibal Lecter, the fictional murderer and cannibal from the film “The Silence of the Lambs”, was both dead and also a great person. And no, the person who portrayed the character of Hannibal Lecter, Anthony Hopkins, isn’t dead either. Also, that was a speech from a few weeks ago I think, and not the RNC speech, which was also unhinged and devolved into a Trump rally attacking Biden and prominent leftists rather than the “call for unity from a changed man” we were promised by bad faith right wing media outlets.

      Trump’s brain is just as much a pile of mush as Biden’s is at this point, but at least I know in the moments of lucidity that Biden has, he’s effective at the job and does the right thing. Can’t say the same for the 34 time convicted felon running for re-election after he failed to steal the last one.

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    5 months ago

    Over the same period, Biden’s odds of securing reelection later this year deteriorated substantially to just 12/1 (7.7 percent) as the president faces pressure from within his own party to withdraw from the race.

    Donald Trump remains the overwhelming favorite, but his odds have lengthened a touch – now 8/15 to return to the White House.

    Yeah…