The ABC can reveal the results of YouGov's latest MRP model, which finds the Peter Dutton-led Coalition would be likely to win about 73 seats if an election was held today.
Ugh, this feels just like the Voice polling a slow moving car crash.
Will Albanese ever show he’s a PM for Australia, and not just a political manager?
I suppose its not surprising the only strategy thats worked in the last few years is small target.
Maybe villainise Dutton, go after him with everything, full negative campaign, make it about Dutton. The guy is dislikeable bash it every chance they get,
Q - What is your plan for this,
A - Our plan is in our policy documents, but wheres Dutton? What’s this grand plan he promises?
Instant pivots to Dutton, link him to Rinehardt, and Palmer everytime mining or wealth inequality, or housing is brought up.
Hmm, mediscare did work though, the threat of privatising energybin WA tends to go down well also. But I’m not sure i can think of an example where it has failed. Have you got an example?
Also its not the politics i’d like, thats for sure.
not specific to australia - i think that “not the other guy” works a lot better for right-leaning parties than left-leaning (or, rather, less right-leaning) parties partly because conservatives campaign on fear, progressives campaign on hope and change. there’s no hope in “that guy sucks and i’m at least not that”
to win on hope and change you need to provide actual policies. to win on fear you only need to tear the other side down; eventually the populace will always get frustrated with the current government, and fear (or, rather, just “a change”) will win just because it’s “not this”
So what your saying is Labor, and other parties/independents need to hook Australians on this fantastic new drug called hopium. ;) maybe…
It is in short supply around the world at the moment, that should change.
If theres one good thing about the US turning in on itself, it’ll mean more space for Australians to spread our own cultural, mechanical, industrial, military and many other wings again. Maybe jot be so focused on our “comparative advantages” in the “global market”. Theres potentially a lot of hope in projects of that nature.
The world mightn’t be in the right place for a message reliant on hope, maybe your right Australians might be. I think even our most regressive individuals are in a different, more detached place from their erstwhile peers in other countries.
I duno what can be done tbh, I really don’t, as someone else said:
What this says to me… The ALP can go to an election with good policy and lose. The ALP can go to an election with bad policy and lose. The ALP can go to an election with no policy and lose. The sole exception being if the media decide that they need a change and the ALP are going to give them sweet treats.
Yep, this is true. It comes down to the media in this country.
Which makes me pose the question, where the fuck are Labor and the unions on opening or supporting friendly media?
Like, sure the super industry have the New Daily for what thats worth, but arguably Turnbull has done more for media balance in this country than anyone on the “Left” has by being friendly to Guardian coming over here.
The idea that Murdoch still has a lock on country broadcasting along with ABC, after three years of Labor is laughable. They should have been white anting that gift of a contract since day one.
It would help if Labor didn’t fuck over one of the biggest unions in the country. They’re dragging their feet on giving other union members (nurses, transport workers, etc) the raises they deserve too. Like, these people worked in impossible circumstances during the pandemic, and now the politicians are acting like they completely forgot about that.
Obviously things would be worse with the liberals, but come on. They’re just too focused on getting balanced budgets because they don’t want a bad headline in the Australian (which they’ll get anyway regardless).
They’re just too focused on getting a balanced budgets because they don’t want a bad headline in the Australian (which they’ll get anyway regardless).
Yeah, they shouldn’t worry. It’d be interesting in future to get Chalmers to speak candidly about this time period. I find it hard to believe he fully accepts the Classical economics view on balanced budgets.
Also, see my reply to Ikt, i was also replying to your first point. Got a bit carried away, but hey, this ain’t a microblogging platform for a reason. :)
By the inclusion of transport workers, i’m guessing train workers in particular, i’m guessing they’re talking NSW Labor.
I don’t know what pay is like for these people over East, but if its anything like here, Nurses and Train workers are paid fairly well. What I meanbto say is they’re able to live firmly middle class lifestyles on their incomes.
To fix the crises in cost of living and housing we really want to be targeting the lower end band of wages, and increasing costs on housing investments like tax discounts and exemptions; at the same time some of these tax discounts apply to assets in general, those should stay, to promote the conversion of investment in property (all types), to more productive assets (ASX, private enterprises, Super, the list is endless). By doing this we’ll begin gaving a pool of money aiming for diverse growth investments, thereby helping the economy to diversify theough private capital flows.
Government of course can help direct these private capital flows by crowding in with Government resources (grants, exemptions, lending,etc) on those industries and companies that align with national targets, such as building feckin submarines, or whatever the shit the Government of the day wants.
Bit of rant, sorry. Reading Mariana Mazzucato again.
People generally don’t know or care which level of government is responsible for what, and for most issues it’s a mix anyway: state governments can’t run a deficit the same way a Federal government can, so they could pitch in one way or another, especially if they’re almost all run by the same party until recently.
Yep, this is true. It comes down to the media in this country.
Which makes me pose the question, where the fuck are Labor and the unions on opening or supporting friendly media?
I agree RE the friendly media, but also the teals did propose a truth in political advertising law that may have been able to clamp down on some of the bullshit. Because you better believe that the lnp is using the same dickheads that Morrison used for political advertising.
Yeah, i’ll never understand the philosophy behind Labor not supporting that.
I’ve heard it explained as, we need both sides otherwise its untenable and the LNP will repeal it in the Government they have.
But thats fine, sets up a political fight that future Labor can bash LNP over the head with, its an issue Labor could fight on, and at best overwhelm the agenda of that LNP Government, rendering them less effective. Come voting time the electorate will wonder what they’ve done apart from fight with the opposition all term. Thats maybe a best case scenario though.
I’ve also heard it makes it hard for campaign promises, statements. I don’t buy it, seems like an easy out. Or i’m not taking the time to understand it.
It might make it more difficult to run a scare campaign, arguably like “mediscare”. But if Labor is worried about not being able to lie a bit I get the feeling they’re about to see just how outclassed they really are.
Informing voters, for starters. Break free of the two-party false dichotomy if you realise the ALP are a lost cause, don’t believe you are forced to defend them in order to critique the coalition.
I know this is far easier said than done, but there are so many ways to do this which an individual (or better, group of friends/co-workers) like you and me can even casually do this.
Ugh, this feels just like the Voice polling a slow moving car crash.
Will Albanese ever show he’s a PM for Australia, and not just a political manager?
I suppose its not surprising the only strategy thats worked in the last few years is small target.
Maybe villainise Dutton, go after him with everything, full negative campaign, make it about Dutton. The guy is dislikeable bash it every chance they get,
Q - What is your plan for this,
A - Our plan is in our policy documents, but wheres Dutton? What’s this grand plan he promises?
Instant pivots to Dutton, link him to Rinehardt, and Palmer everytime mining or wealth inequality, or housing is brought up.
idk that sounds a lot like a “not the other guy” campaign, and i think we’ve pretty conclusively proven that doesn’t work for us
sure, dutton is unlikeable and that should be pointed out at every turn, but as a a contrast to your good policy
Hmm, mediscare did work though, the threat of privatising energybin WA tends to go down well also. But I’m not sure i can think of an example where it has failed. Have you got an example?
Also its not the politics i’d like, thats for sure.
not specific to australia - i think that “not the other guy” works a lot better for right-leaning parties than left-leaning (or, rather, less right-leaning) parties partly because conservatives campaign on fear, progressives campaign on hope and change. there’s no hope in “that guy sucks and i’m at least not that”
to win on hope and change you need to provide actual policies. to win on fear you only need to tear the other side down; eventually the populace will always get frustrated with the current government, and fear (or, rather, just “a change”) will win just because it’s “not this”
So what your saying is Labor, and other parties/independents need to hook Australians on this fantastic new drug called hopium. ;) maybe…
It is in short supply around the world at the moment, that should change.
If theres one good thing about the US turning in on itself, it’ll mean more space for Australians to spread our own cultural, mechanical, industrial, military and many other wings again. Maybe jot be so focused on our “comparative advantages” in the “global market”. Theres potentially a lot of hope in projects of that nature.
The world mightn’t be in the right place for a message reliant on hope, maybe your right Australians might be. I think even our most regressive individuals are in a different, more detached place from their erstwhile peers in other countries.
I duno what can be done tbh, I really don’t, as someone else said:
Yep, this is true. It comes down to the media in this country.
Which makes me pose the question, where the fuck are Labor and the unions on opening or supporting friendly media?
Like, sure the super industry have the New Daily for what thats worth, but arguably Turnbull has done more for media balance in this country than anyone on the “Left” has by being friendly to Guardian coming over here.
The idea that Murdoch still has a lock on country broadcasting along with ABC, after three years of Labor is laughable. They should have been white anting that gift of a contract since day one.
It would help if Labor didn’t fuck over one of the biggest unions in the country. They’re dragging their feet on giving other union members (nurses, transport workers, etc) the raises they deserve too. Like, these people worked in impossible circumstances during the pandemic, and now the politicians are acting like they completely forgot about that.
Obviously things would be worse with the liberals, but come on. They’re just too focused on getting balanced budgets because they don’t want a bad headline in the Australian (which they’ll get anyway regardless).
Yeah, they shouldn’t worry. It’d be interesting in future to get Chalmers to speak candidly about this time period. I find it hard to believe he fully accepts the Classical economics view on balanced budgets.
Also, see my reply to Ikt, i was also replying to your first point. Got a bit carried away, but hey, this ain’t a microblogging platform for a reason. :)
Are you mixing up state labor and federal labor?
By the inclusion of transport workers, i’m guessing train workers in particular, i’m guessing they’re talking NSW Labor.
I don’t know what pay is like for these people over East, but if its anything like here, Nurses and Train workers are paid fairly well. What I meanbto say is they’re able to live firmly middle class lifestyles on their incomes.
To fix the crises in cost of living and housing we really want to be targeting the lower end band of wages, and increasing costs on housing investments like tax discounts and exemptions; at the same time some of these tax discounts apply to assets in general, those should stay, to promote the conversion of investment in property (all types), to more productive assets (ASX, private enterprises, Super, the list is endless). By doing this we’ll begin gaving a pool of money aiming for diverse growth investments, thereby helping the economy to diversify theough private capital flows.
Government of course can help direct these private capital flows by crowding in with Government resources (grants, exemptions, lending,etc) on those industries and companies that align with national targets, such as building feckin submarines, or whatever the shit the Government of the day wants.
Bit of rant, sorry. Reading Mariana Mazzucato again.
People generally don’t know or care which level of government is responsible for what, and for most issues it’s a mix anyway: state governments can’t run a deficit the same way a Federal government can, so they could pitch in one way or another, especially if they’re almost all run by the same party until recently.
I think the right has been emboldened by their success in the US as well and is dumping more money into the campaign this time. For instance advance has a shitload of money to throw at LNP opponents and have absolutely no problem lying or astroturfing movements.
I agree RE the friendly media, but also the teals did propose a truth in political advertising law that may have been able to clamp down on some of the bullshit. Because you better believe that the lnp is using the same dickheads that Morrison used for political advertising.
Yeah, i’ll never understand the philosophy behind Labor not supporting that.
I’ve heard it explained as, we need both sides otherwise its untenable and the LNP will repeal it in the Government they have.
But thats fine, sets up a political fight that future Labor can bash LNP over the head with, its an issue Labor could fight on, and at best overwhelm the agenda of that LNP Government, rendering them less effective. Come voting time the electorate will wonder what they’ve done apart from fight with the opposition all term. Thats maybe a best case scenario though.
I’ve also heard it makes it hard for campaign promises, statements. I don’t buy it, seems like an easy out. Or i’m not taking the time to understand it.
It might make it more difficult to run a scare campaign, arguably like “mediscare”. But if Labor is worried about not being able to lie a bit I get the feeling they’re about to see just how outclassed they really are.
Informing voters, for starters. Break free of the two-party false dichotomy if you realise the ALP are a lost cause, don’t believe you are forced to defend them in order to critique the coalition.
I know this is far easier said than done, but there are so many ways to do this which an individual (or better, group of friends/co-workers) like you and me can even casually do this.