“I’m trying to decide if I want to go on record, and the answer is yes,” Frank Luntz told Piers Morgan Wednesday. “I think that he loses because of this debate performance.”
  • actually@lemmy.world
    0·
    7 days ago

    I think nobody can really predict who will win until January. Watching polls may help people feel better but this is much more than national polls

  • 👍Maximum Derek👍@discuss.tchncs.deEnglish
    0·
    7 days ago

    This is how the snowball started rolling with Biden right after the first debate. I doubt there are enough R’s with spines to make it a trend, but here’s hoping.

    • walden@sub.wetshaving.social
      0·
      7 days ago

      There’s a big difference in their performances, though. With Biden it was more a question of “is this guy even going to be alive in January?”, vs Trump who’s just the same old idiot he has always been, and just finally met his match.

      • JaymesRS@literature.cafeEnglish
        0·
        7 days ago

        I don’t think he’ll lose any due-hards, but continuing this could depress turnout. It will affect the margins of “undecideds” though.

      • 👍Maximum Derek👍@discuss.tchncs.deEnglish
        0·
        7 days ago

        To some degree that’s irrelevant at this point as ballots are printed or at least printing. No matter what it will be Trump/Vance people see in their pamphlets. But the more republicans think he should have dropped, the less motivated they’ll be to bother voting.

  • LEDZeppelin@lemmy.world
    0·
    7 days ago

    Yeah, I’ve seen this movie right after “you can grab pussy” locker room talk. Don’t listen to any of this bullshit.

    #VOTE

      • JaymesRS@literature.cafeEnglish
        0·
        7 days ago

        My feeling is that Clinton’s big problem was that she had a low ceiling and low floor because of 20+ years of smears; even though she was definitely qualified, there was just too much generalized negative baggage. I knew many democrats that believed something big would come out because republican muckrakers had spent so many years seeding that field. When Comey decided to break all tradition over nothing it just reinforced that perception.

        Harris doesn’t have that, she has a high ceiling for perception. More people have no idea who she is and the more she can be the one to define herself while Trump looks crazier and crazier the better she’ll do. And the debate feeds that unlike Clinton.

        • glimse@lemmy.world
          0·
          7 days ago

          I voted Clinton in 2016…but I didn’t exactly vote FOR her, moreso I voted against Trump. I feel like that’s why she lost - she repeatedly demonstrated that she’s an out-of-touch career politician. She had several How Do You Do, Fellow Kids? moments that turned off a lot of people. It also felt like they were putting way too much emphasis on her being a woman and that’s…just not a selling point. I don’t care what reproductive gear a candidate is equipped with.

          I cringed a bit at those gaffs but there were two main reasons my vote was a reluctant one:

          1. I can’t stand politician dynasties. I don’t want political families running the country and I definitely don’t want it to be a Clinton (who I admittedly would have voted for in the 90s if I was eligible). Staying with Bill after the scandal was a political move in my opinion.

          2. The nomination didn’t feel deserved at all. Sanders got screwed in a time we needed him most and it felt like it did earlier this year when I intended on voting for Biden. Nobody likes thinking “this is not who I want to support but I have no choice.” She was/is a “generic politician” who doesn’t represent the people. 2016 was an awful time for the Democrats to hoist her up.

          I don’t have the same reservations about Harris even though she wasn’t my first pick, for what it’s worth, so please don’t bring up misogyny. I was vocally against the ridiculousness of pizzagate and the “omg her emails,” too.

          • criss_cross@lemmy.world
            0·
            7 days ago

            Yeah the DNC trying to be kingmakers and shoving her to be the candidate because it was “her turn” was so demoralizing at the time.

            I think this year will be different. A lot of people stayed home in 2016 because they hated Hilary but thought she had it in the bag. I don’t think people are making the same mistake again. Especially after Roe v Wade.

      • The Pantser@lemmy.world
        0·
        7 days ago

        Actually it’s about the demented electoral college, can we string up any of the electors that refuse to vote the will of the people?

      • Optional@lemmy.world
        0·
        7 days ago

        Fair. But tbh I wasn’t paying attention to him until then (except through decisions, which were still better than we had in a long time.) I assumed the MAGA feces-throwing was the usual gaslighting until I saw it.

        Howabout [In a typical two-party presidential debate where the candidates are both under eighty years old] they mean nothing.

        Kerry won all his. Hillary won all hers. The race is unchanged and will boil down to who gets out to vote and how successful republiQan election stealing efforts are.

  • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
    0·
    7 days ago

    Honestly trump dropping out is pretty much the worse thing that can happen to Kamala.

    Just like the worst thing that could have happened to trump was Biden dropping out.

    The only reason anyone could convince themselves trump or Biden was a good enough candidate, was if the only other option was trump or Biden.

    Replacing trump wouldn’t just gain more republican votes, it’ll cost a lot that are only voting Kamala to stop trump.

    trump just won’t do it, and no one will force him out

    • dragontamer@lemmy.worldEnglish
      0·
      7 days ago

      Except Trump’s famous “They’re eating cats and dogs” line came from JD Vance. The craziest part of the debate wasn’t even Trump’s to fully own. JD Vance quite possibly is worse than Trump in regards to likability.

      So if Trump drops out, who the fuck in the Republican field replaces him? Ron Desantis?

    • mipadaitu@lemmy.worldEnglish
      0·
      7 days ago

      GOP is trump now. If he drops out 60% of the Republican voters would just write in JesusTrump anyway.

      • 100@fedia.io
        0·
        7 days ago

        i wonder if voting trump out here would kill trumpism for good or are they too deep in orange shit to quit and will double down

        • JaymesRS@literature.cafeEnglish
          0·
          7 days ago

          Only way out is through. The modern Republican Party is dead like the whigs, we’ll see what comes next. My guess is that (if we can avoid authoritarianism/fascism) more of the sane conservatives will partner with Democrats as a more explicit centrist party and progressives shift into their own party if they can develop a better local presence.

    • dhork@lemmy.worldEnglish
      0·
      7 days ago

      It’s too late for Trump to drop out now. Many state filing deadlines have passed, and I recall reading there are some states with extremely early mail-in voting where ballots are already being printed. Trump’s only path off the ballot is if God exercises His Ultimate Veto.

      • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
        0·
        7 days ago

        I really don’t think so.

        Like. I remember something about how (at least in some states) you’re really voting for a party ticket. And then the party that wins gets that many electoral college voters from that party who then vote. And I believe the only requirement is they vote for the party that won the votes to appoint them as electorers, and that’s not even a requirement everywhere.

        It was the small piece of truth that led to Trump’s false elector plan last election. The only reason it didn’t work, was his false electors weren’t legitimately appointed.

        So trump could both not be able to remove his name from ballots, but still drop out of the race and no longer be the candidate.

        It’s two different things with an incredibly strong correlation, but they don’t always have to be the same.

        I didn’t bother to dig in and verify that tho, I may be wrong. But I didn’t spend the time to do it and went off memory because trump just ain’t dropping out no matter what.

        • dhork@lemmy.worldEnglish
          0·
          7 days ago

          It’s not that you are voting for a party ticket, instead you are voting for electors picked by the party, with the only job of supporting the candidate. (In my state, the ballots even say we are voting for “Electors For …” .) And in some states, once the electors are chosen on that ballot, the law says they must vote for their pledged candidate. So it’s not easy for a candidate to just drop out. Those electors may not be given the choice to change.

          • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
            0·
            7 days ago

            Yeah our system drastically need reformed, there’s too much shit that’s different state to state, and waaaaaay too much of our current system relies on people doing what they’re supposed to.

            It’s just crazy to me we’re almost a decade into trump and Dems aren’t desperately trying to shore up all these loopholes.

            Shits just unnecessarily complicated

      • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
        0·
        7 days ago

        Biden was/is beholden to his donors, they threatened to cut him off and he had zero chance without their money, he wasn’t a strong enough candidate.

        trump is funded by foreign dictators, billionaires, and domestic idiots.

        They’re not cutting off his funding no matter what. So he won’t be forced to drop like Biden.

        Plus the only thing keeping trump out of jail is he’s a presidential candidate, dudes going to do everything he can to hold onto any scraps of immunity he can get. Biden doesn’t have to worry about that

  • andrew_bidlaw@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
    0·
    7 days ago

    Offtoping here for a little bit, but Kamala’s short campaign just 100 days before the elections feels more fitting to the media cycle. In a year almost everything can be forgotten, and when it comes to undecided, the closer your peak performance is to their actual vote means a lot. People get bored being fed the same thing for long, and if the stamina of the campaign is a finite resource, it’s better spent after the last corner because you get people still recall what you did at the polling booth.

  • nifty@lemmy.worldOP
    0·
    7 days ago

    I don’t know, it’s too soon to call it. We’re not even at the October surprise yet, probably Vance is getting replaced. Harris win depends on voter turnout

      • TimLovesTech (AuDHD)(he/him)@badatbeing.socialEnglish
        0·
        7 days ago

        It actually plays into the Harris point of Trump churning through staff that he feels like aren’t doing enough for him. And I can’t imagine he removes JD and then puts him in his cabinet or something, to which I would expect JD to flip back to his pre-VP-audition stance on Trump and spread the word of what is happening “behind the curtain”.

    • ALQ@lemmy.world
      0·
      7 days ago

      Yeah, this type of “reporting” is infuriating to me. Claiming the election is in the bag is just a shitty attempt to depress voter turnout.

      I won’t trust that Trump has lost this election until Harris is sworn in as POTUS.

      • MagicShel@programming.dev
        0·
        7 days ago

        I won’t trust it until I read it in his obituary. Until then he’s going to be claiming stolen election every single day.

      • AA5B@lemmy.world
        0·
        7 days ago

        Personally I think it’s much more self-serving than that. In case this come true, that pollster wants to make a name for himself by being the first to predict it.

      • schizo@forum.uncomfortable.businessEnglish
        0·
        7 days ago

        And you don’t even need to win to be president!

        You just need to have it be close enough to have the supreme court call it in your favor, just ask Al Gore about that one.

        (And for anyone confused: the odds that our bought-and-bribed-for supreme court would vote for anyone but Trump are pretty much lol, lmao.)