Really you don’t need to read more than one chart:
If you vote for anyone other than Harris, you’re voting for Trump:
Quick some body run as a super conservative as a third party and take away some GOP votes please.
Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election was not due to any erosion in support for Donald Trump. Rather, not only did Trump’s raw vote total increase, but in the key states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Trump’s share of the vote actually increased.
Still mind-boggling and a source of great personal disgust while being a national disgrace. One can only hope that enough people have soured on him since then, after countless displays of racism, xenophobia, sexism, authoritarianism, bigotry, and incompetence. A twice impeached loser felon grifter that’s clearly a russian asset should not stand a chance, yet here we are. Makes me sad.
Between the people trying to give you healthcare and secure your job, and the people trying to let your miscarrying wife bleed out in the parking lot of a for-profit hospital, some morons prefer the latter. Why? “because he’s racist like me!” seems to be the deciding factor. Yes, that is why my parents are voting for him. and my mom is a poll-worker 🤦♂️
Funny how third parties always rear their heads at election time but remain almost entirely quiet the rest of the term. Where does the money come from?
Not going to vote your way out of this one unfortunately
Florida 2020 graph is not visually accurate.
I feel like the most viable path to a third party at this point:
- Ranked choice somehow becomes national law (and while we’re at it, other election reform) — yes, already very unlikely here, although it’d help Dems with reelection so under them it’s possible if they get rid of the filibuster. Gop would never.
- Splinters make a better third party, I’m thinking the "RINO"s or MAGA folk. Maybe the progressive wing of Democrars. The current third parties are pretty bad as they are given they don’t seem to target places they could actually win.
- Said faction gets more traction and the model gets tested for a few elections until it’s more normal. New paries emerge, etc.
It ain’t happening mostly cause of 1, either because the political capital would be too expensive or because it’s not ultimately in their interest. The only way 1 can happen is if it becomes a major issue and they’ve got much more lower hanging fruit, even in election rules (I’d be happy just having electrical college changed to popular vote).
National Election Reform would be great, but that would require we actually have national elections, which we don’t. :)
It’s not even a matter of 50 state elections… each election precinct is essentially it’s own little fiefdom at this point, with officials who BELIEVE they’re free to say “I aint gonna certify!” even if the State Secretary of State will put the screws to them if they do.
Holy shit you’re so right on all the districts being treated like a fiefdom. I like to think i keep up with politics but this idea has never crossed my mind. Im going to be looking at my local elections closer now.
If Americans want a third choice support ranked choice voting
Or STAR voting. Or anything but FPTP.
This is the way. It’s perfectly okay to want to support a third party, but it isn’t done by wasting your FPTP vote.
yeah we need to make it less dangerous.
^ THIS ^ - As I said elsewhere… Jesus, if ALASKA can do it…
There are two states where ranked choice exists apparently. Are these the states that the third parties are spending money in? They’d be the most likely places for them to win and show they are viable in any way.
I don’t know the second state, Portland has it for the first time at the local level and that’s turning into a clown car, I cannot WAIT to see how it works out in practice!
So far:
118 candidates running for 14 offices:
https://www.opb.org/article/2024/09/06/118-candidates-portland-election/?outputType=amp
One losing union support over mass traffic violations:
Multiple being investigated by the Secretary of State for trading donations to meet matching funds thresholds:
Second state is Maine.
If you live in a swing state or any state that is up for grabs, then yeah don’t vote for third party. If your in a deep blue/red state, I’m talking > 15 percent swing, vote for whoever you want in the presidential, your votes just going to get collapsed into the state vote for the electoral college any way. Should still vote for the two parties or whoever’s competitive in state and local elections because your vote can have an effect.
If the electoral college says my vote effectively doesn’t matter in deciding the next president since I’m in California, then at least let me use my vote to send some sort of message.
You’re exactly right.
I do wonder why nearly everyone manages to forget that the electoral college exists.
I know of a couple of Lemmy users who frequently hype third party candidates, and who will not like this analysis at all, lol.
We discount this analysis because it’s self serving. Third Way as other orgs that diminish 3rd party candidates do so in an attempt to protect their own positions of power. Voters continuing to elect neo fascists from the duopoly vote against their own interests to do the bidding of the neo fascists
And your hopeless manifestation approach to breaking the two-party duopoly isn’t entirely self-serving?
It won’t accomplish anything. You will never win any election against the two-party behemoths without Democratic reform.
But you folks don’t ever advocate for that, just unqualified spoiler candidates, and never in local elections where independents have more of a chance.
Even if your heart is in the right place, you’re a liability to progress because you care more about Democrats being imperfect than you do about Republicans being fascist.
You say spoiler as if we would ever vote for your candidates. Anyway. There could be no third party candidates on the ballot and we would not vote for your appointed candidates
I see both of them as being fascist, the Democrat ratchet effect enables right-wing fascism to take hold.
I don’t think anybody is hoping to convince you True Believers who have fully incorporated this into your personality. The spoiler effect is more about other people who maybe haven’t thought about it so much and don’t realize the mistake they are making.
As do I, I see the reports all the time. :)
I don’t live in a swing state, I get to vote for whoever I want. Lets not pretend like the election doesnt. Boil down to half a million voters in like 4 or 5 different states. This is as much a reality as anything you’ve said, probably more.
Outside of a swing state, you’re right… right up until the National Popular Vote movement is in effect in enough states to get 270 Electoral College votes:
https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/state-status
"&As of April 15, 2024, the National Popular Vote bill has been enacted into law in 18 jurisdictions possessing 209 electoral votes, including
6 small jurisdictions (District of Columbia, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Vermont),
9 medium-sized states (Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington), and
3 big states (California, Illinois, New York).
The National Popular Vote bill will take effect when enacted into law by states possessing 270 electoral votes (a majority of the 538 electoral votes). The bill will take effect when enacted by states possessing an additional 61 electoral votes."
I dunno, I saw some stats the other day indicating that if all the non-voters in supposedly solid red states actually went and voted, then they might be able to swing the state.
Yeah and if all the people who dislike both parties voted for the same third party they’d win, but that’s not going to happen either.
Why should it? Why should anyone vote for a candidate with no political administration experience? Regardless of their stated positions, what evidence do voters have that any of the third party candidates have the skills necessary to execute the duties of the office effectively? Without progressives in Congress, how exactly is a progressive administration supposed to navigate gridlock better than the neo liberals?
Using Third Way as a source? The same organization that helped push the entire party and country to the right? Bill Clinton and Third Way started the shift to the right and Harris finalized that transition to become the dominant conservative party.
I have other sites with the same stats, but this article makes the dangers of third paries easiest to understand.
Use those other sites. Third Way is a large contributor to why the Democrats are continually threatened by third parties. Their whole idea is that Democrats can and should go as hard toward the right as possible because the left flank of the party is (a) bad for their financial backers and (b) has to vote Democratic. You can’t promote that position and then act like a shocked Pikachu when your own philosophy ends up creating the problem you now want to warn against.
Plus all those godforsaken inaccurate pie charts other people pointed out.
The only danger present is the oligarchy losing their stranglehold on society
certain lemmy users around these parts absolutely frothing at the mouth seeing this graph
Not really. The point has always been that the dems need pressure to change their genocidal policies. If you vote blue unconditionally then it won’t take long until the next blue candidate will be on the same level as trump. Show these graphs to the democratic party and tell them to listen to 3rd party voters.
I’m frothing at the mouth because it’s distorted, making an easy comparison by visuals impossible. The numbers don’t match the size of the pies
Someone fucked these up badly and there’s no way to tell from this how.
Are the numbers swapped between candidates but the sizes correct? Are the sizes swapped between candidates and the numbers correct?
As an aside, this is why serious data people don’t use pie charts. They’re terrible for lots of reasons, one being it’s very hard to compare areas instead of lengths, like a bar chart, as demonstrated by how many people didn’t notice these were so bad at first.
If you see data presented in a pie chart you should immediately be suspicious that it’s dishonest or incompetent.
None of that is to take away that voting for third parties this election is a terrible move - just saying this chart is useless.
The argument is always that “A vote for Not X is a vote for Y”, forgetting how many third party voters would simply skip the ballot line or refuse to vote at all if these options weren’t available.
Calling Jill Stein and Chase Oliver “fascist enablers” for appearing on the ballot misses the entire reason they have a vote base at all.
If you were sincerely never going to vote for either I honestly don’t care. Throw your ballot in the garbage physically or technically, I do not give a shit.
But MAGA propagandists are also on here campaigning for Donald every day by trying to turn voters against the only reasonable viable candidate.
If your primary strategy for winning elections is diverting people into third parties, your election prospects are bleak.
A big part of Trump’s problem is that he’s glued to his base. He can’t say anything appealing to a general audience without pissing off the anti-government haters at his flank.
I don’t see anyone on this site trying to argue for Trump. They’re all closeted in other communities, where any criticism of the GOP is forbidden.
Their primary strategy is using propaganda on fear-addicted racists to bring their voters to the polls, along with gerrymandering to maximize the effects of vote suppression strategies.
Vote suppression strategies includes not only closing polls and other bullshit, but also MAGA propagandists cosplaying as third party voters and attempting to deter votes that would otherwise go Dem.
Fuck Jill Stein. Never forget the dinner she attended
If people can tolerate Trump being on the Epstein flight logs and Harris taking enormous sums from the Crypto-Bros, I don’t think Stein’s dinner with the Russians is going to phase them.
But I guess you can always default to the Libertarians. Can’t think of anything problematic about a bunch of Americans that idolize Milei.
And the enormous sums she taken from AIPAC, and refusing to prosecute one of the architects of the 2008 housing crisis, opposing body cams on cops, locking up parents of truant children, etc. etc.
Oh sure, but this is all far-right pro-Trump propaganda. Don’t let it influence you in any way.
Facts are not propaganda, you may believe that everything you disagree with is propaganda. She has a well-documented history of an being authoritarian right-wing cop
also I believe that was sarcasm and they were agreeing with you.
Facts are not propaganda
Ben Shapiro ass response.
Selective release of and focus on information is a classic propaganda technique.
The entire reason they have a vote base at all is not dissimilar to Trump: civic illiteracy. Unfortunately she appeals greatly to these newcomers to politics or those who care not about watching the other side literally take a sledgehammer to the country but rather point to the other side for not fixing the damage quickly enough. There was a brief moment in time when I was a new voter and at a very shallow level liked the Green Party platform and Stein…
… But it didn’t take long for me to realize that was utterly self-defeatist. And if Stein actually cared about the issues she pretends to care about, then she would simply run for Congress as AOC or Sanders have done and influence change in the Democratic party. Changing the party from the inside is far easier than going against the mathematically-impossible 3rd-party vote that ultimately results in a proven Spoiler Vote. So you’re right… Some naive folks do support Stein; and those naive folks absolutely have more in common with the Democratic coalition than the Republican ones. So why would they ever want to support Republicans via Spoiler vote?
Anyways, we should all be advocating for Campaign Finance & Election Reform so we can truly vote for who we most ideally want without risk to supporting the person or party furthest from our views.
Anyways, we should all be advocating for Campaign Finance & Election Reform
You’re not going to get that with an incumbent party. How do you abolish FPTP inside an organization that won’t give DC it’s statehood?
An Incumbent party already supports DC statehood and it would benefit their party greatly no less. It is completely possible to transform a party (e.g., how Democrats used to be what Republicans are now) and also push another party out (e.g., the Whigs) from within. We do that one Representative at a time, such as how Bernie Sanders and AOC have transformed the Democrat party.
I’ve written extensively elsewhere on the topic of abolishing & replacing FPTP and more, and ultimately, I believe it’s going to require a groundswell bipartisan effort state-by-state on a scale as big as the civil rights movement to pressure for a new Constitutional Amendment, along with an accompanying state-level Constitutional amendment in each state. To me it’s the only way to truly fix all the core problems while also making it immune to the corrupt Supreme Court.
An Incumbent party already supports DC statehood
They failed to pass a statehood bill in 2009 and again in 2017. That would suggest the party does not, in fact, support the change.
In both cases the outcome was overwhelmingly a result of Republican obstructionism with the vast majority who voted to support DC Statehood being Democrat. There is no reason Democrats wouldn’t want another state that would be the bluest in the country to statehood lol. Democrats had a filibuster-proof super-majority for like, a month, and if you recall that kind of had other things going on at the time in 2009.
In 2017… You know who was President and who controlled the Senate, right…?
In both cases the outcome was overwhelmingly a result of Republican obstructionism
Democrats claiming they need 60 votes to do anything are as big a pack of liars as Republicans claiming Unitary Executive is a thing.
These are institutions that are hostile to a majority black state.
The enablers of fascism are the 2 capitalist owned parties
Scratch a liberal…
Eh…we call em as we see em.
When I was younger I liked stein…now that I’ve seen her just show up for the last 3 or 4 elections and not much else…the pieces all came together.
She’s definitely past her expiration date.
I guess you can always write in Claudia de la Cruz with the PSL party.
When your method cannot clearly lead to your stated goal given the circumstances, you are either not smart enough to recognize that, or you are lying about your goal.
That doesn’t change even if someone agrees with your stated goal. Ignoring the circumstances doesn’t make them go away.
A similar article will be posted every time Monk posts one supporting a 3rd party spoiler from now on.
Spoiler implies we would vote for a Democrat if there were no 3rd party options. We would not. There’s a larger chance you would vote for a republican than us voting Democrat
This is mind-bogglingly weird. I’ll never understand it.
I don’t think it’s all that weird to recognize that neither party is what you want or will advance your political goals.
It’s pretty weird to insist on a course of action that won’t result in something you want. If you think both parties are the same, you’re wildly misinformed.
I don’t think anyone suggested both parties are the same.
If they aren’t the same in their view, they they would be sensible to care about which wins. They have a stake in a less harmful result.
But literally throwing away their vote on a third party, they are inflicting harm on themselves, the electorate, and the world.
For you, personally, that may be true. Statistically speaking, in general, it’s very much the opposite:
https://www.thirdway.org/memo/the-data-how-third-parties-could-be-spoilers-that-elect-trump
“Similarly, Third Way’s polling has found that Biden’s voters are 13 percentage points more likely to consider voting for a third party than Trump’s voters. While Biden has a higher ceiling, with his possible vote totals well north of 50%, Trump has a stronger floor: his voters are more loyal, so third parties are less likely to draw them away.”
If you lean left, and you fail to vote for the Democratic candidate, you only help the Republican candidate.
There’s the confusion, we dont lean left, we are left. Democrat voters lean left then vote for non left leaning candidates. In rhetoric the DNC may sound like they lean left but in action they do not.
Compared to Trump, Nixon is to the left.
By Obama’s own admission, Nixon was to the left of Obama.
I mean shit, Dick Cheney is left of Trump. What does that say?
No kidding! When Cheney and Fucking Frank Luntz are like “Hey, maybe he’s too extreme…” you know you’re in trouble.
Has anyone talked to Karl Rove lately? LOL.
Republican Karl Rove says Trump got ‘crushed by a woman he called dumb as a rock’ during ‘train wreck’ debate
Genuine question: why has he not been banned? To me he seems to repeatedly violate the rule about arguing in good faith, and - to be honest - his passive aggressive civility feels at times more hostile than straight up attacks.
We’ve talked about it amongst ourselves with the mods and admins and have concluded that having a shitty opinion is not infringing.
They do post legitimate sources with legitimate opinions. They’re BAD opinions, but you aren’t going to get banned for having a bad opinion.
I don’t much have an issue with the material they chose to post - the nature of a link aggregator will sort them to the bottom regardless due how how voting works and as you say, they’re legitimate sources.
My issue is more regarding their conduct in the comment sections.
Their conduct is more cordial than the responses they get.
It looks that way but is not. It’s purposefully shaped to be divisive.
Have ya ever heard of Southern politeness? Cause ya can technically be cordial while being a complete shitbag, a good example being “bless your heart” more or less meaning go die in a hole.
Would you correlate to being a shitbag is someone that you happen to disagree with
It’s not the opinion, it’s the JAQ energy and baiting.
If they just posted articles, that’s one thing.
They legitimately try to bait people into being heated about things. Afterwhich, they cry victim
Yeah but is it against the rules to be an asshole or a crybaby ? I tend to say stupid shit when drinking and have gotten a ban and a few comments and posts deleted, but it would be a shame for something minor to get me a bigger ban or what not.
I’m not going to directly link the user because that’s bad behavior but they have a very clear routine they follow on every post. Having an opinion is fine, acting like you are following a script is eventually really lame. Especially when the end of the script usually is calling people out for victimizing them
This user often posts about Jill Stein, and is exclusively critical of democrats.
so you’re gonna have to find like 20 articles a day… also don’t forget to copy paste a 6 paragraph defense of “I swear I’m not Russian I just post the articles” in the comments of every post
I do have the time… :)
You are correct, albeit for the wrong reasons :D
Oh God I didn’t even realize how badly proportioned the pie charts were. They didn’t even generate new ones they just copy pasted an image and changed the percentage number. Aghhhhhhhh I hate this I hate this I hate this
And now you will see it everywhere and it will annoy you ever more.
Also I at first though that your profile pick was that of Darth Vitiate since it fits your user name. But its actually soldier with twin tails and I hate it.
Oh wow, thirdway.org says you can’t have an alternative to two candidates who don’t represent you and have to choose between the candidates offered to you no matter your politics!
You don’t say!
In case any reader of this post isn’t aware: thirdway.org is the website for people associated with the Third Way which is described as a triangulation between communism and capitalism but ends up still being capitalism somehow.
Triangulation was a middle ground between Democrat and Republican ideology developed by Bill Clinton, Third Way, and the DLC. And has helped shift the entire party to the right. It has nothing to do with communism.
Garbage like this article and Third Way is self serving
Third way politics were common in Europe and there they were explicitly anticommunist. I think they were even promoted by state department cutouts. I didn’t want to make it solely about the us third way even though that website is the us third way clintonite psychos.
Whomst are absolutely anticommunist as well.
I’m just astounded that a person would post an article from the third way to make the case against third parties.
Confirmation bias
I don’t get your meaning there.
Third way is essentially a rightwing capitalist think tank posing as progressive. They, along with Bill Clinton and his DLC started the party shift to the right to in order to appeal to big money that had normally been flowing to republicans. They are opposed to third parties because it would harm capital.
Their name Third Way doesnt imply an an alternative approach to government, but representative of triangulation, the centrist approach to government, a little leftish a little rightish
Yup.
We are a two party system.
Yup, at least outside Alaska we are…
Who would have thought ALASKA would have the most progressive statewide voting system?
Can we get that going elsewhere?
https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election-information/#RankedChoice
“In accordance with Alaska law, all general elections will be conducted by Ranked Choice Voting (RCV). RCV allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference. Only the top four candidates who received the greatest number of votes for any office in the primary will appear on the general election ballot. There will still be a space for write-in candidates except for Presidential races. For a candidate to win, they must receive a majority (50% + 1) of total votes cast. If no candidate receives a majority of 1st choice votes in the 1st round of counting, more rounds of counting continue until a candidate reaches a majority.”
It could well be a consequence of how recently it became a state. There’s a similar situation in the UK where elections for the entire country use FPTP but elections for the devolved parliaments (Northern Ireland in 1973, Scotland in 1999, and Wales also in 1999) use other better options . Maybe seeing FPTP in action for a long time just turns you against it.
NZ’s Parliament was regularly described as “more Westminster than Westminster” until we moved to MMP in the 90s.
It has its bugs but it’s far better than FPP and many alternatives.
We’re working on it here in Colorado, but the two entrenched parties are fighting us tooth and nail. and don’t forget, Alaska has a measure on the ballot to repeal that this election.
Were working on it in Oregon too. Our democrats are partially on board with it but all the conservative counties are fighting it for obvious reasons.
This is where primaries are vitally important. They provide accountability with low risk to the overall direction of governance.
