Yes but these are definitely hypotheses. Fivethirtyeight has extensively covered it. In 2016 they covered it a lot, did a post-mortem on the election, and said the industry said they’ll fix it for next time, then in 2020 we got even worse polling errors.

I miss Nate from the fivethirtyeight days. It’s sad to see his model paywalled.

Random but if you’re a polling nerd this site is a godsend: https://swingstates.vercel.app/

its based on the 538 API, they also have a mastodon and bsky bot

This cycle a lot of polling has oversamples GOP. And they are using a new technique wherein they weight polls based on previous vote. Which is interesting I guess. Anyways, we’ll see what happens in a week.

you’re completely right just see the edit I made at the top of my comment

EDIT: I’m stupid and did it with the fine squaring every week instead of doubling and I’m too lazy to recalculate so ignore this

w₁ = (100’000 x 7)²

w₂ = (100’000 x 7 + w₁)²

w_n = (100’000 x 7 + w_n-1)²

It looks like it’s impossible to find a true function for w_n that depens only on n.

But we can approximate it with:

w_n = C^(2^n) 

where C is the money owed at the end of the first week.

So the approximate formula for how much is owned at the end of the nth week is.

w_n = (4.9 * 10^11)^(2^(n-1))

where n is the number of weeks since the fine was issued.

In truth w_n will be larger than said number but it’s a decent lower bounds for approximation and it should be accurate to within around a couple percent.

i did this calculation in rubles but you can just replace 100’000 by 1000 if you wish USD.

Well if the fuel is compromised there’s a larger chance it’ll ignite and reach the shells if it’s hydrogen as opposed to petroleum.

Switzerland has a similar law. But since a far-right pro-“peace” (that means pro-putin) party is our largest party, we’ve hit an unfortunate roadblock. It really sucks because we have so much equipment rotting away we clearly could give to help ukraine.

Your instance has a good head start on me by blocking ML. A third of my blocklist is from said instance 😂.

Hopefully north korean shenanigans can convince South Korea to give significant military aid, and Japan’s new more centrist parliament will have more will to help Ukraine than it’s previous more right wing one. After all, Japan is still the fourth largest economy on earth.

Anyways what I’m saying, is if Trump is elected, it’s no reason to give up on Ukraine. It means we all need to try harder.

40-45% not 75% source

And if europe actually gets their act together they can stop russia in Ukraine. They have to revitalise their arms industry, be more generous with ukraine aid, and use their intelligence agencies to aid the AUF. And it’s vital we counter Putin’s social media information wars so his far right parties don’t win more elections across europe.

If you look at aid per GDP, Spain, Italy and to a lesser extent France and Germany are the EU countries that need to step up to help fill a possible gap caused by Trump.

Diesel is a type of petroleum product.

Shy Trump voter is the main theory about why pollsters consistently underestimate Trump.

A good part of Trump voters are idiots who brag about it. But there’s a decent chunk who thinks he’s an arse, but are deluded into thinking that he’d be better for immigration/the economy or whatever and vote for him without telling anyone because they are embarrassed.

Shit I never saw I was in a meme sub lmao. To be fair the comments above mine seemed mostly serious.

Right, but you are going to want to choose a fuel that has the least chance of flaming up if you’re making a military vehicle.

Hydrogen has (compared to petroleum) a Wider Flammability Range, Lower Ignition Energy (0.02 millijoules) which is really low and much smaller than petroleum, and a higher diffusion rate.

All of which make it more likely to go kaboom.

Isn’t hydrogen even more flammable and explosive than petroleum. Just seems like a dumb idea to put that in a military vehicle.

That’s likely a really low percentage unfortunately.

I think the estimates are only 2-4% of Trump 2016 voters voted Biden 2020.

But there definitely is something to the “shy Trump voter” theory.

I have a blocklist of 35 people and this site has gotten way more positive and nice. It’s sad that it’s come to blocking so many people though.

All it takes is one arsehole in a nice thread to start insulting people and the whole thread often crumbles into a negative shitshow.

I guess it depends how you phrase it.

Well they both use the threat of violence to reinforce the status quo. So in my mind they are effectively the same.

Probably two lives, given their security will likely shoot you in the face.

ACAB.

Please don’t use this as an excuse for. “It doesn’t matter how much I emit then”.

Use this as motivation for grassroots and political action aiming to stop the concept of billionaire from existing.

I support it in it’s defence. I don’t support it in itself if you get what I mean.