• 3 Posts
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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • So you propose building a reactor that doesn’t have anything actually working beyond demonstration reactors yet?

    It still has many of the same issues coal and gas has:

    1. Its still centralised. The power companies can still rip us off.
    2. Solar is already cheap and already only takes 4 years to pay off. The Government would have to subsidise the power during the construction period to prevent people moving to solar. And, Solar is effectively free after it has been installed
    3. It STILL needs instantly dispatchable power. You can’t just turn on a generator. You need to spin it up to the correct speed, and it needs to be in the same phase. If its out of phase, the generator jumps forward or backwards and damages itself… Safety circuits will kick in. Loy Yang’s kicked in during the storms. Nuclear will likely have the same issue.
    4. It doesn’t solve the unreliable power in Rural areas. Whereas, solar, wind and batteries can because they can effectively treat it more like a “microgrid”, with less central points of failure… ie, instead of centralising the batteries, scatter them in various areas.
    5. Whilst there is reduced radiation, and its cleaner than Coal, you STILL have radioctive byproducts that will last ages. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter how well they’re stored, there is always a risk they’ll end up in the water table and not secure and it will be expected that a future generation will likely need to use excess energy to convert the radioactive materials to non-radioactive (somehow)

    The only real problem it solves is that its more reliable than solar, and cleaner than coal. But… In two and a half years, solar panel efficiency also increased by 5%. So, in 10 years, that could be a 20% efficiency increase too… And in 6 years, the cost halved.

    In the unlikely case the thorium plant does need to be shut down (natural disaster as an example, similar to Fukashima), we’re basically screwed. Microgrid’s wouldn’t have this trouble… Also, it basically requires that we just do nothing about the pollution for 10-20 years whilst they’re building it, or the extra power requirements we’ll need to transition to non-fossil fuel cars.


  • In 3 years, solar panel cost has mostly dropped in half (you can buy a 10kw system for the same as 6.6 a few years ago). Battery cost dropped 25% over the past year.

    Nuclear can’t dispatch any power (incrementally or otherwise), until its fully built. Nuclear is also expensive power, and it can’t be dispatched as quickly or cheaply as solar/batteries (so the nuclear power station will remain offline). Don’t forget that generators need to sync to the grid fully, and can even lose sync and take hours to come back online (which happened to Loy Yang recently, and there were huge blackouts in victoria). When more despatchable power is needed, batteries will win EVERY time (because its cheap and instant).

    Its reasonable to think that even 40kwh batteries will be cheaper and safer than even 10kwh batteries too and much higher efficiency solar panels (and possibly solar windows), so people will get off the grid and can have days of solar eclipse too.

    Battery capacity is limited by cost still… It won’t be in the future (don’t forget, residential is about $ per kwh, NOT density)

    One thing that is also misunderstood, is that panels still also produce power when its cloudy too… Solar panel efficiency in 10 years will increase rapidly, and this will only improve…

    Nuclear is like an average olympic athlete who isn’t allowed to start a race for 10 years. Sure it looks competitive now, but there are so many other athletes around, that by the time Nuclear gets to the starting line, the other athletes will be finishing.


  • Thing is, Renewables are already cheap. By the time Nuclear is built, batteries and solar will be hugely cheaper than the price they are now (and in 10 years, its reasonable to expect more than half the price again).

    The same thing that happened to NBN will happen to nuclear (basic Game theory). With NBN, competitors undercut the NBN with 5G, because FTTC and FTTN was so bad, and it wasted everyone’s money.

    In this case, if they start building, everyone knows that power costs will be expensive, so renewable energy companies will target the prices, and encourage people to install solar and batteries anyway… If batteries are 1/5 of the price they are now, everyone will simply install 5x more batteries, more panels (because they’ll also be more efficient and cheaper than they are now, and work during worse conditions) and remove themselves from the grid. From a game theory point of view, Solar/batteries have a 10-15 year head start and are already cheaper. At the moment 12kwh seems to be the common capacity for batteries… However, if batteries drop a lot, 30-40kwh might be the normal. And it’s likely by the time Nuclear can be built that Lithium will no longer even be the norm for batteries (or if it is, they’ll probably be solid state and low risk). Sodium batteries were already introduced last year and are 25% cheaper instantly. Battery density doesn’t matter for houses (only cars), which really opens up options (all that matters is upfront cost and $ per kwh)

    I bought my 6.6kw panels maybe 3 years ago, and 10kw is apparently already cheaper. If I wait 5 years, 15-20kw will probably be cheap (and I have more than enough roof space, so the only thing limiting me would be weather the power company allows it)

    I have no idea why anyone would want a centralised grid. Last major power outage here in Victoria during storms was triggered because Loy Yang coal fell offline, and non-solid state power generation takes ages to come back online (it needs to sync up to the grid). Solar and batteries sync up immediately, so if its available, they will always beat Nuclear, and nuclear will simply be sitting there burning rods increasing our taxes and power prices (because nobody wants to use it, and its ultimately taxpayer money)… Similar to what happened with NBN (they ended up having to replace a lot of the copper anyway, and now yet again, they’ve had to upgrade to fibre)

    If nuclear could come online tomorrow, it would make sense simply to get rid of coal. However Nuclear is basically playing a game where the competition has a 10 lead, and any innovation can be introduced to the market instantly. With Nuclear, whatever we start building now, we’re stuck with. You can’t simply just start incrementally updating parts


  • By the time these are built, you’ll have hugely cheap and efficient batteries and solar panels… Even solar windows and roof tiles

    Furthermore, nuclear is expensive anyway, so everyone will still get solar and undercut it. Day #1 of Game theory. In fact, similar to NBN, there is a very real chance solar companies will spring up and undercut it, so we have another lib NBN.

    Finally, why would anyone want a centralised power grid which is operated and run by a single company.

    It’s a stupid idea.









  • I just didn’t 20 hours so far on it

    What I don’t like is that you need to finish the day for it to save

    Also the wording about what happens to crops at the end of season should change

    But otherwise, it’s something to do, but it is getting a bit click and pointy really. I wish you should pair up with characters more and walk around with then