Surely all these people losing decent paying jobs will have no impact on the economy right? Definitely not a recession right?
Surely all these people losing decent paying jobs will have no impact on the economy right? Definitely not a recession right?
What’s the difference between a technical recession or an actual recession. Words are supposed to have meanings and recession is a well defined term with globally accepted measurement metrics.
If we are technically in a recession it means we are in a recession.
A recession is two consecutive periods of negative growth. So usually a “technical recession” means “we meet the criteria for a recession but we’re not experiencing the bad effects you’d expect (yet)”
The point is that the word recession has a meaning, the meaning is accepted worldwide, and we are in one. I would also dispute that we are not experiencing the bad effects. The polls seem to indicate the public is feeling quite a bit of pain.
Well ‘we’ aren’t actually in a recession. Economic growth in the US has been positive the last several quarters.
Possibly in NZ Politics the “we” context would be obvious?
Who is the “we” you are talking about?
The difference is the duration; and I would guess its done due to the vagaries of measurement as much as anything because its common for the initial numbers to end up being revised later. So 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is a technical recession, and beyond that you’re in a real recession.
But the cynic in me will always suggest that while economists sometimes seem to think what they’re doing is a hard science, a lot of it seems to be more about the feels and what is expedient to their political view point.
Then on top of that, over the years i’ve read various arguments that GDP is kinda a piss poor measure of the economy anyway, and there’s more holistic ways of measuring how things are going. This article sums up a bunch of the opinions about it, of whose Craig Renney’s is the one I probably put more stock in - along with those suggesting using the Sahm Rule given it looks at employment which is probably a better measure for how actual people are getting along.
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/124432/we-asked-twenty-economists-how-they-would-define-recession-new-zealand