Does anyone here have experience comparing the times of the Garmin race predictor for different events? I know that usually it slightly overestimates me or that I haven’t been able to run the time yet, but I’m curious how the estimations compare for different distances.
Or otherwise in general, what are your thoughts on sports-watch/app generated predicted race times?
I’ve found the estimated times to be almost laughably bad, and worse the longer the distance.
Right now, mine estimates:
- 5k 17:22
- 10k 36:02
- Half 1:19:38
- Marathon 2:46:25
My 5k PB is 18:48, 10k is 38:55, and I’ve only done one marathon at 3:14:24. But right now? My goal is to do a sub-18 5k by the end of the year, and that is far from a sure thing. I’ve no hope of doing it today, and I doubt I could even complete a marathon (at least in any remotely reasonable time) today.
So no, I don’t put a lot of stock in it.
My race predictor said I should be able to do a 19 minute 5k. To test this out I did a 5k on the weekend and went out around 4 minute kilometer pace and definitely couldnt keep it up after the first 2kms. Finished in 21:18 which is still a nice PB but nowhere near 19 minutes.
I’m going to try guage my performance based on training runs from now on. I could do 5/6 1km reps at around 4:15 per km which seems to correlate with what I did during the race.
I feel that they slightly overestimate for me. Although, I’m never quite sure if the prediction is for perfect conditions on a flat route.
Another thing to keep in mind is that watches uses track further distance then the actual course. My fastest official (parkrun) 5k time is around 22:10. Garmin logged the 5k time as 21:xx as it had tracked around 5.1km. This was closer to my Garmin prediction of 21:45
