Trump will negotiate a peace deal with Putin without involving Ukraine and Europe, and Ukraine will make significant concessions to satisfy the Russians. That has been the message from the American administration over the last few days.
In this video I discuss what it says about Trump’s understanding of the war, and why the plan is bound to fail. The really interesting question is therefore not what Trump says he will do now, but what he will do when it doesn’t work.
Not just lift sanctions. All of a sudden, the Russian troops become “peacekeepers” working to “stabilise the region” against the “rogue Zelenskyy regime”, and get US support. And Trump will be a lot less cautious about the weapons he gives Russia than Biden was about the ones he gave Ukraine.