(I mean, we have crazy shit like a ceo getting shot, coup attempt in south korea, syrian dictator being overthrown, lets make this timeline more chaotic.)
The implication would be a de facto war with China as this would be viewed as an American invasion of Chinese territory.
While the world may act as if Taiwan is independent, it is recognized under international law that Taiwan and China are the same country.
I guess China would be big mad
Surprise invasion of Taiwan, following this if USA is unable to defend and attacks back or it becomes a standstill in Taiwan it would escalate to a grand war?
Well, China views Taiwan as part of their nation and would likely consider it an invasion.
Probably big war.
Escalation with China, which is not what the US currently wants, hence why they keep military support in check but nothing more. However it is the USA, so they likely have a ton of direct influence in Taiwan’s government, so it could be just as well considered a vassal or “shill” state, or at the very least decently under control.
Currently though, they are cutting off China from Taiwan’s chip supply which is forcing China to kick start their lithography fabs at home, and is also the reason why a ton if the RISC-V software is coming out of Chinese universities (open ISA unlike ARM and Intel x86).
The USA likes to keep a resemblance of global leader, so they’ll never actually annex any country even with popular support, just control it with the easiest method available, which is usually just espionage and a crap ton of bribes.
It would only happen in a military conflict, which is also unlikely despite China trying to hype up their military all the time. They don’t currently have the resources to take on Taiwan even alone (in a prolonged fight) just due to the sheer logistics of transporting a ton of troops onto the rather heavily defended Island.
They want the fabs, but they can also just as easily play the long game and eventually make them at home in probably less thana decade.
Also not to mention Taiwan probably has actual social care and proper facilities for its citizens, so I don’t think anyone would want to join exploit heavy USA.
I once had a Taiwanese American tell me he wished that they did that and Taiwan would be better off 0_o
I’ve heard stuff like that too. To be fair, if the United States were to resolutely defend Taiwan, China might not touch it, though there would still be a possibility, but at the least the US and Taiwan would likely win that war since they just need to keep Taiwan independent, not invade China.
I don’t dare to guess the final results, but as a first step:
China would have no problem with calling all of it null and void, the referendum as well as the annexation. They regard Taiwan as a part of China, before and after.
Hey… maybe that’s what the Greenland/Panama/Canada thing is really about!
So when Trumpeltier talks about Greenland, he is just mimicking China talking about Taiwan? 😂
