Until now, the story of Michigan’s role in the election has centered on Arab Americans’ profound discontent with the Democratic Party over Israel’s relentless devastation of Gaza. The war has left deep emotional wounds.

Israel’s recent military incursion into Lebanon feels like another twist of the knife, intensifying the sense of betrayal and alienation of one of the most critical voting constituencies in the country.

Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the presidency will plummet if she loses Michigan, and current polling shows she and Donald Trump are neck and neck there.

Come November 5, I think we may look back on the weeks after Israel invaded Lebanon as the moment Harris lost significant ground in the race.