I’m supporting Harris, but I think people miss the real argument for Trump on Israel. Honestly, a good case can be made that Trump has a better chance of pulling US away from Israel than Harris will. Historically, Republicans have actually stood up to Israel better than Democrats have. Reagan for instance wasn’t afraid to use US military aid as leverage to rein in Israel.
But moreover, I think the core of the argument for why Trump might be better for Harris on Palestine is that fundamentally, it is extremely unlikely that Harris will do anything to rein in Netanyahu. She will likely continue Biden’s policies and continue to give him carte blanche to do whatever he wants. Anything short of complete ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population of Gaza and the West Bank will see Kamala continue aid at current levels.
Trump will largely do the same. However, there is a small, but nonzero, chance that Trump will pull aid from Israel for simple self-serving reasons. At his core he is extremely doubtful of any kind of foreign aid. And at some point he might simply pull aid not because he supports the Palestinians, but because he’s at his core an isolationist and doesn’t want to give money to either side. From the press I’ve read, it seems that Israel would actually prefer Kamala to win. Why? Because while Trump might overall be better ideologically than Kamala, Kamala is at least more reliable. Trump is erratic and could just pull US aid entirely on a whim. From Israel’s perspective, Kamala is expected to reliably deliver the current level of support regardless of Israel’s actions. Trump is a wildcard. He might give more support, or he might just pull the US out of Israel entirely. He’s is chaotic to his core.
Again, I’ll be voting for Harris, but there is a very good argument that Israel would prefer Kamala over Trump. Yes, there’s a chance that Trump would give them even higher levels of support - joining hand in hand in a ware against Iran, giving them full blessing to completely expel the Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank, etc. But it’s not like Trump at his core is some friend to the Jews. He’s an old-school anti-Semite at heart, despite what he says. It’s entirely possible that one day he just decides to pull all aid, simply because he’s tired of the US paying for it. He is again, at his core, an isolationist, “America first” type. From Israel’s perspective, Kamala represents a guaranteed steady supply of aid at current levels. Trump represents a gamble that could see a massive increase of support or a complete collapse of it, simply depending on how Trump’s mood evolves. And really, Kamala is probably a better bet for them because of it.
I think that’s a misreading of Trump, if it’s even really possible to read him by statements alone.
Trump says a lot of things, but I am assuming he wants to be “hands off” in the sense of not interfering in Israel’s affairs and preserving the status quo, rather than cutting Israel off from American support. Much of his voter base is staunchly pro-Israel, so it would harm his support if he were to break that core pillar of the Republican party so suddenly.
Looking at his actions during his previous presidency, he did demonstrate that he was a strong ally of Israel, going so far as to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to the contested capital of Jerusalem/Al Quds, which is something that had not been done before by any previous administration. Not like Biden made any moves to take the embassy out of Jerusalem either, but Trump effectively cemented US approval of Israel’s expansionist practices by placing American affairs directly in the middle of it.
I’m supporting Harris, but I think people miss the real argument for Trump on Israel. Honestly, a good case can be made that Trump has a better chance of pulling US away from Israel than Harris will. Historically, Republicans have actually stood up to Israel better than Democrats have. Reagan for instance wasn’t afraid to use US military aid as leverage to rein in Israel.
But moreover, I think the core of the argument for why Trump might be better for Harris on Palestine is that fundamentally, it is extremely unlikely that Harris will do anything to rein in Netanyahu. She will likely continue Biden’s policies and continue to give him carte blanche to do whatever he wants. Anything short of complete ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population of Gaza and the West Bank will see Kamala continue aid at current levels.
Trump will largely do the same. However, there is a small, but nonzero, chance that Trump will pull aid from Israel for simple self-serving reasons. At his core he is extremely doubtful of any kind of foreign aid. And at some point he might simply pull aid not because he supports the Palestinians, but because he’s at his core an isolationist and doesn’t want to give money to either side. From the press I’ve read, it seems that Israel would actually prefer Kamala to win. Why? Because while Trump might overall be better ideologically than Kamala, Kamala is at least more reliable. Trump is erratic and could just pull US aid entirely on a whim. From Israel’s perspective, Kamala is expected to reliably deliver the current level of support regardless of Israel’s actions. Trump is a wildcard. He might give more support, or he might just pull the US out of Israel entirely. He’s is chaotic to his core.
Again, I’ll be voting for Harris, but there is a very good argument that Israel would prefer Kamala over Trump. Yes, there’s a chance that Trump would give them even higher levels of support - joining hand in hand in a ware against Iran, giving them full blessing to completely expel the Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank, etc. But it’s not like Trump at his core is some friend to the Jews. He’s an old-school anti-Semite at heart, despite what he says. It’s entirely possible that one day he just decides to pull all aid, simply because he’s tired of the US paying for it. He is again, at his core, an isolationist, “America first” type. From Israel’s perspective, Kamala represents a guaranteed steady supply of aid at current levels. Trump represents a gamble that could see a massive increase of support or a complete collapse of it, simply depending on how Trump’s mood evolves. And really, Kamala is probably a better bet for them because of it.
I think that’s a misreading of Trump, if it’s even really possible to read him by statements alone.
Trump says a lot of things, but I am assuming he wants to be “hands off” in the sense of not interfering in Israel’s affairs and preserving the status quo, rather than cutting Israel off from American support. Much of his voter base is staunchly pro-Israel, so it would harm his support if he were to break that core pillar of the Republican party so suddenly.
Looking at his actions during his previous presidency, he did demonstrate that he was a strong ally of Israel, going so far as to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to the contested capital of Jerusalem/Al Quds, which is something that had not been done before by any previous administration. Not like Biden made any moves to take the embassy out of Jerusalem either, but Trump effectively cemented US approval of Israel’s expansionist practices by placing American affairs directly in the middle of it.
That’s a LOT of “may” and “might”. Nothing is off the table when it comes to Trump, sure, but I don’t think this is a possibility worth considering.