A new Morning Consult poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally, 51% to 45%.
Key takeaway: “Her 51% of support among likely voters, which is also at a record high, is driven largely by her best figures to date among Democrats, Biden 2020 voters, liberals, women, 18- to 34-year-olds and millennials.
Trump may have a hard ceiling of “likely voters”, but my fear is that there are a lot of unlikely/“low information” voters that are backing Trump.
They are simply not paying attention to anything but their paycheck, which is not rising as fast as prices are. They remember all the chaos of the Trump Presidency, but also remember when they could afford rent.
The same thing happened in 2020. I keep reminding people that 12 million more people voted for Trump in 2020 than 2016. Those people looked at all the chaos of the Trump Presidency and said “Yup! We need more of that”, after not caring 4 years prior.
Polls don’t matter, votes.do. And thanks to the EC, votes in certain zip codes are more impactful than others. Harris not only needs to get good turnout, but get good turnout in the right zip codes to win this.
If you are Trump, you are counting on unlikely voters. Hell of a thing to count on. Good luck with that.
There has only been two presidential elections where the popular vote was greater than the electoral vote.
No. You’re counting on your zealots to overthrow the government and violently seize power for you through undemocratic methods.
He tried to do it once, and he’s going to attempt to fucking do it again. My guess he’s going to try to get Harris’ delegates below the threshhold and the vote for president will go to the gerrymandered GOP house.
It’s happened five times before (unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying)
It’s more than two, yeah.
Of the five, one had no party affiliation (Jackson/Adams) and the rest were all “won” by republicans.
Expect them to cheat bigly.
What exactly do you mean by this? When you say “the electoral vote”, you’re not referring to the number of electors in the electoral college, are you?
Because if you are then that sounds silly lol, I’m probably misunderstanding you
No, you’ve g9tit right. Most often the electoral vote follows the popular vote. There has only been twice in history when it didn’t. One was Trump in 2016. Clinton won the popular vote. For Trump to do that twice is a very low probability.
Ohhh you just mean “there’ve only been 2 times in history where the popular vote disagreed with the electoral vote.”
When you said “only 2 times the popular vote was greater than the electoral vote” it sounded like you were comparing the size of the popular vote to the size of the electoral vote. Which would be silly, b/c the popular vote is always larger than the electoral vote lol
I could have phrased it better.