The numbers I gave are the model outputs for the state as of yesterday off his subscriber based model talk page.

So no.

Of course these are the likelihood of a win and not polling differences. That’s why I said model output, not a poll aggregate.

An 8 point spread in a state for polling averages is incredibly large. For reference Ohio is as deeply spread red in polling averages as Nee Jersey is blue. You think New Jersey votes red this year in any reasonable reality? No.