Despite strong evidence that the average voter in the presidential election doesnāt care a hoot about international trade policy, Donald Trump and his running mate JD Vance have been promising to step up Trumpās tariff war with China.
As usual, theyāre backing their promise with lies and other humbug.
āA tariff is a tax on a foreign country,ā Trump asserted at an Aug. 19 rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., for example. āThatās the way it is, whether you like it or not. A lot of people like to say itās a tax on us. No, no, no. Itās a tax on a foreign country.ā
Questioned during an appearance on NBCās āMeet the Pressā on Aug. 25 about the effect of Trumpās tariffs on ordinary households ā and economistsā conclusion that consumers pay the price ā Vance asserted that āeconomists really disagree about the effects of tariffs.ā
Theyāre wrong on both counts.
In truth, thereās no detectable disagreement among economists. In two polls conducted by the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago, panels of economists unanimously agreed that American households would pay the price for Trumpās tariffs.
Those opinions held in a March 2018 poll and a May 2019 poll of panels of 43 leading academic economists. (The panels werenāt identical but did overlap; three respondents in the first poll didnāt provide answers and 11 didnāt answer or were āuncertainā in the second.)
The Harris campaign is more forthright about the cost of tariffs to the average consumer, although its specific estimates about the magnitude of the cost of tariffs Trump has proposed for the future ā almost $4,000 a year on middle class households ā can be questioned.
Uh duhā¦
Itās not uh duh for lots of folks, which is the root talking point.
Tariffs are seen as creating a vacuum that domestic producers will fill. The problem is it doesnāt happen immediately, or ever. Thereās lots of additional conditions that all need to align for domestic business to fill the gap, outcompete, then survive beyond the tariff lifespan