IMHO, it mostly shows that most people don’t actually understand statistics and polling.
If you have two candidates that are neck and neck, and are split by a percent that is close to the margin of error, then things can go either way depending on who is able to turnout votes on Election Day.
Yup, it within the probability. What it shows is that a lot of people who voted for Trump didn’t say they were when polled.
IMHO, it mostly shows that most people don’t actually understand statistics and polling.
If you have two candidates that are neck and neck, and are split by a percent that is close to the margin of error, then things can go either way depending on who is able to turnout votes on Election Day.