Defence spending is currently at about 2% of gross domestic product (GDP), or around A$56 billion per year. The Coalition is reportedly eyeing an increase to 2.5% of GDP by 2029.
The Albanese government’s current spending plan is expected to reach 2.33% of GDP by 2034. And in this week’s budget, it is expected to bring forward some of its already announced $50 billion increase in defence spending.
Why do these percentages matter? US President Donald Trump has made it very clear he expects America’s allies to pay more on defence, at least 3% of GDP.
We asked five experts if defence spending should be increased, and if so, by how much. They agreed more money is needed, albeit with caveats.
It isn’t a matter of liking us. I don’t think any nation sees Australia as a threat, other than as a staging ground for US forces. At the same time, I don’t think any nation is seriously considering attacking Australia. That’s why I don’t really prioritise spending more on our defense.
But, 20-30 years from now? I have no idea what the future looks like. I wouldn’t want to look up suddenly 20 years from now and be like Russia in 1912.
One of the things brought up in the original article’s arguments was deterrence, which hey I guess is fair enough on a long-term time scale where the future is unknown and some kind of “real” warfare (not just peacekeeping / anti-terror type stuff) involving Australia isn’t impossible to think up. But deterrence (due to non-trivial military power) is only one way to cool off a potential conflict; as far as I know it’s not like we’re particularly worried about say New Zealand being at war with us – even on a long-term time scale – and it’s because we’re bros 👉👈