Not to mention the TCO.
Battery lifetime will be interesting when vehicles are out of warranty.
A traditional ICE vehicle will last decades beyond the Warranty period.
Some of the cheaper EVs have batteries dying within months of warranty expiration; replacement remanufactured change-over batteries are more than the value of a new vehicle.
As long a manufacturers have guaranteed buyback and the vehicles are fully recyclable, that would be fine, but it isn’t something the cheaper brands aren’t offering.
The rough numbers I’ve seen from looking locally is the smaller cheaper ones tend to end their 8 year cycle with batteries worse off than advertised. Tesla included.
The more expensive ones sold back then seem to be ticking over as expected or in some cases slightly better than expected. The first Bmwi for example.
But the issue is that the volumes back then were far lower than what they are now. So data will be skewed based on customer type - do cheaper ones buy the car and do way more KMS / charge then more aggressively, vs expensive EV owners taking better care of the battery (using super fast less) and or doing less Kms?
We will see car manufacturing companies start to take notice of how their cars do and either advertise theirs are doing better than expected (while engineering the battery to be worse in the future to save money), or adjusting their warranty so they don’t get caught with the shittier battery replacements.
They have a “rent a EV” thing iny country, i think i’ll look into that. I don’t really have range anxiety with ev’s, but just the thought that your battery gets worse over time and a replacement is basically a new car gives me the creeps.
That would be wonderful.
They would need to make the Change-Over because of the plethora of battery platforms available.
I can see them being quite expensive though. Lots of labour to test and refactor that many cells by hand. Consumed cells will need to be recycled and specialist technicians trained and experienced in working with high voltages will need to do the battery swaps in and out of vehicles.
One other good benefit would be that vehicles that are no longer roadworthy will be taken off the road. If an EV battery technician notices damaged structure, they aren’t likely to want to replace the battery in the vehicle.
EV battery technicians that aren’t responsible will be selected against by Darwin’s Law. ⚡️🔥💨⚡️
That only works if you don’t consider the actual engine failure rate and the maintenance cost of gas engines and the money saved by using electricity instead of gas…
Unless you don’t drive a lot (in which case the battery won’t wear out anyway) you spend way more per year on a gas car then an electric car.
Hell, to make things simpler, even in the long term, total $/km is lower on an electric car.
We let us do the maths;
A low end ICE vehicle (historically in Australia) would last 20-30 years if it is serviced regularly. $30k.
Let us pretend it uses a tank of fuel a week ($5000),annual
Servicing is $1000 a year and insurance is $1000 a year.
That is $7000 per year running cost.
That is $30k+30*$7k =$240k
Let’s take an EV, assuming insurance is $1000, servicing is $500, cost is $100k and lifetime is 10 years before the battery is useless. I’m not going to worry about electricity.
3*$100k+30*$1500 = $750k
“That’s not fair, you can buy a cheap EV for $50k, and batteries may last longer than 10 years!”
Ok then, 2*$50k+30*$1500=$550k
Not to mention the TCO. Battery lifetime will be interesting when vehicles are out of warranty.
A traditional ICE vehicle will last decades beyond the Warranty period.
Some of the cheaper EVs have batteries dying within months of warranty expiration; replacement remanufactured change-over batteries are more than the value of a new vehicle.
As long a manufacturers have guaranteed buyback and the vehicles are fully recyclable, that would be fine, but it isn’t something the cheaper brands aren’t offering.
I’ve been tracking this.
The rough numbers I’ve seen from looking locally is the smaller cheaper ones tend to end their 8 year cycle with batteries worse off than advertised. Tesla included.
The more expensive ones sold back then seem to be ticking over as expected or in some cases slightly better than expected. The first Bmwi for example.
But the issue is that the volumes back then were far lower than what they are now. So data will be skewed based on customer type - do cheaper ones buy the car and do way more KMS / charge then more aggressively, vs expensive EV owners taking better care of the battery (using super fast less) and or doing less Kms?
We will see car manufacturing companies start to take notice of how their cars do and either advertise theirs are doing better than expected (while engineering the battery to be worse in the future to save money), or adjusting their warranty so they don’t get caught with the shittier battery replacements.
They have a “rent a EV” thing iny country, i think i’ll look into that. I don’t really have range anxiety with ev’s, but just the thought that your battery gets worse over time and a replacement is basically a new car gives me the creeps.
This will be a non issue when/if 3rd party replacement batteries are prevalent
That would be wonderful. They would need to make the Change-Over because of the plethora of battery platforms available. I can see them being quite expensive though. Lots of labour to test and refactor that many cells by hand. Consumed cells will need to be recycled and specialist technicians trained and experienced in working with high voltages will need to do the battery swaps in and out of vehicles.
One other good benefit would be that vehicles that are no longer roadworthy will be taken off the road. If an EV battery technician notices damaged structure, they aren’t likely to want to replace the battery in the vehicle. EV battery technicians that aren’t responsible will be selected against by Darwin’s Law. ⚡️🔥💨⚡️
That only works if you don’t consider the actual engine failure rate and the maintenance cost of gas engines and the money saved by using electricity instead of gas…
Unless you don’t drive a lot (in which case the battery won’t wear out anyway) you spend way more per year on a gas car then an electric car.
Hell, to make things simpler, even in the long term, total $/km is lower on an electric car.
We let us do the maths; A low end ICE vehicle (historically in Australia) would last 20-30 years if it is serviced regularly. $30k. Let us pretend it uses a tank of fuel a week ($5000),annual Servicing is $1000 a year and insurance is $1000 a year. That is $7000 per year running cost. That is $30k+30*$7k =$240k
Let’s take an EV, assuming insurance is $1000, servicing is $500, cost is $100k and lifetime is 10 years before the battery is useless. I’m not going to worry about electricity. 3*$100k+30*$1500 = $750k
“That’s not fair, you can buy a cheap EV for $50k, and batteries may last longer than 10 years!” Ok then, 2*$50k+30*$1500=$550k
You’re making up numbers to come to the conclusion that fits your narrativ, good job 👍
I would like to see your calculations. Please enlighten us.