Barbariandude [he/him]

At least in Europe, the norm isn’t free public transport, but very cheap subsidized public transport. In Prague, for example, 1 month of unlimited bus & metro use is currently 50 USD.

I think Prague has an amazing public transport system, it’s really intelligently designed.

It’s not only the US industry ramping up. Companies across Europe are expanding existing ammo factories and making new ones. With the blank cheque that Ukraine has been given by the US, they’re not doing this for free.

You can cynically look at this as “sacrificing the livelihoods of citizens”, and I’m not going to stop you if you want to see it that way, but in some specific countries, any sign of weakness towards Russia by a politician would cause that politician to be thrown out. If not by vote of no confidence, then by mob.

I’ll never fault anyone for talking about facts and their experiences. Even (especially!) if they contradict mine, I’ll always appreciate someone talking to me in good faith.

Thank you for this comment. I mean that very honestly. Far too many people see countries as monoliths, and I fall into that trap when trying to make a point from time to time.

About the overarching media narratives, the most rabidly anti-Russian atm are Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, just fyi.

Sorry, I was looking at old numbers. 38 HIMARS and 186 bradleys is no danger to US stockpiles either. Ammo though, that’s a more interesting question. Arms industries are ramping up production like mad. This is an absolute godsend for arms companies. This isn’t hurting NATO, this is lining the pockets of military industrial sectors worldwide.

On the financial front, I’m rapidly reaching the limit of my knowledge. I will concede the point, but warn that at least in the east, people are willing to absorb a lot of financial pain if it means punching the Russian empire in the face. Western Europe may be forced, kicking and screaming, to follow suit for fear of fracturing Europe.

It’s very easy to say “they just need to win!” when you have no skin in the game. Eastern Europe knows what it’s like to be under Russian subjugation, and no amount of anti-NATO critical support will change that fact.

Completely agree that it doesn’t really matter at the end of the day. Politicians will use polls that are useful to them and ignore those that aren’t. I was replying to the point that this war is fomenting anti-NATO sentiment, which I don’t think is true.

Consumer inflation…

Yeah, very much the case. I feel this every day. It’s caused some grumbling, but not many people are linking this with NATO. The tendency seems to be blaming Russia. Again, anecdotally, but still.

EU ceasefire

No chance. Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Poland and Bulgaria would riot. All of the Bucharest Nine are firmly against giving Russia time to rearm, replenish and come back for round two, which is what they expect Russia would use the ceasefire for.

Global south…

Unfortunately very true. Russia blowing up the grain shipment deal didn’t help. Hopefully Turkey can bring them back to the negotiating table.

Germany is a special case for this. Post WW2, they’ve had a strong pacifism streak. It was absolutely shocking at the time that they decided to send offensive weapons at all. Would have been unthinkable 2 years ago.

The number of modern systems in play is tiny. The vast majority of the aid has been old systems. 4 HIMARS and 50 Bradleys are hardly going to deplete US supply, let’s be real here.

About the various links, none of that contradicts what I’m saying. I didn’t say that this had no cost, quite on the contrary. I said that EU funds buying up supply will hurt more than the EU, and the EU does have the cash to afford this.

About the PMI, your own link does not connect this to the energy sector. It connects this to weaker demand for goods. Comparing and contrasting with Italy, France, Czech Republic, Poland and Romania shows a similar story: companies are dropping production due to expectations that demand is dipping as people are tightening their purses.

depleted NATO’s stockpile

Of obsolete equipment that was just sitting in storage costing the US money. Other countries are looking at this as an opportunity to modernize cheaply by getting the US to replace what they’re sending with better gear.

Armed a new generation of radicalized right-wing mercenaries

No comment. You might be right about that, remains to be seen.

Deindustrialized Europe

Absolutely not true. The EU has managed to recover from the pipelines turning off, and have built up LNG terminals to keep on chugging without issue. It cost and will cost a lot of money, but the industry will flow. If anything, the big loser in this is the global south who might not have the cash to compete with the EU buying up LNG, not Europe.

many Europeans are not content…

I don’t think that’s true. I’m an eastern European, and speaking anecdotally, support for Ukraine and consequently NATO is absolutely surging. Looking at polls, it seems that 85% of people in my country have a positive view of NATO atm.

Hasn’t Russia’s war on Ukraine done more to reinvigorate NATO than anything else in the past decade? If the goal is the diminishment of NATO, then Russia’s war on Ukraine is definitely bad for that goal.

To steelman what you’re replying to, I can understand finding it difficult to care about another tragedy, even one as large and affecting as many people as that, when you have your own personal tragedy to deal with on a daily basis.

Victoria 3 has consumed hours and hours of my free time. Line must go up (standard of living graph line, of course).