HOW DOES THIS END? On two occasions in modern times, central banks have found themselves obligated to pour huge amounts of newly-created money into the system. The first instance was the global fin…
Evergrande and chinese property are just shufflings of abstract information in the form of money . the real economy is biophysical.
Expect waves of stagflation of various sizes and duration to be the principal form of economic collapse experienced by the working class. It doesn’t have to come as a collapse just a slow grind across a lifetime of declining standards of living.
Maybe but I’m expecting some form of crash event as it snowballs. Staying with a slow steady decline seems less possible mathematically. Especially given levels of leverage
punctuated stairsteps down. sure there are crashes but its never that one crash that is the crash there is always the next one. 2008 was a crash , lots of people didnt really recover but we move on. the decline can still last a life time and we never cross the proverbial “collapse” where everyone busts out their bondage outfits and dunebuggies . People still go to work every day, people still need doctors , doctors still make more than day laborers , people still own stuff and parasitize those who dont etc…
Most people in collapse forums talk about collapse but have no real metric to measure by. I would look at global population , global “real” gdp, global institution size ie… supernational instituions like European union cracking up then later nations that were put together based on nonsense balkanizing. Life expectancy global and local. etc…
I also think there will be financial crashes, and likely more than one – just as the last leveraged bubbles collapsed in 2008 and 2020. Of course, he is right that this will lead to them adopting an inflationary model to “solve” it, which will result in a worse version of the same dynamic with time. Eventually I think we will get the dreaded hyperinflation if it goes on long enough.
The wild card is that the demographic collapse and energy descent trends will be highly deflationary no matter what government does, but that’s a longer term issue.
Evergrande and chinese property are just shufflings of abstract information in the form of money . the real economy is biophysical.
Expect waves of stagflation of various sizes and duration to be the principal form of economic collapse experienced by the working class. It doesn’t have to come as a collapse just a slow grind across a lifetime of declining standards of living.
Maybe but I’m expecting some form of crash event as it snowballs. Staying with a slow steady decline seems less possible mathematically. Especially given levels of leverage
punctuated stairsteps down. sure there are crashes but its never that one crash that is the crash there is always the next one. 2008 was a crash , lots of people didnt really recover but we move on. the decline can still last a life time and we never cross the proverbial “collapse” where everyone busts out their bondage outfits and dunebuggies . People still go to work every day, people still need doctors , doctors still make more than day laborers , people still own stuff and parasitize those who dont etc…
Most people in collapse forums talk about collapse but have no real metric to measure by. I would look at global population , global “real” gdp, global institution size ie… supernational instituions like European union cracking up then later nations that were put together based on nonsense balkanizing. Life expectancy global and local. etc…
I also think there will be financial crashes, and likely more than one – just as the last leveraged bubbles collapsed in 2008 and 2020. Of course, he is right that this will lead to them adopting an inflationary model to “solve” it, which will result in a worse version of the same dynamic with time. Eventually I think we will get the dreaded hyperinflation if it goes on long enough.
The wild card is that the demographic collapse and energy descent trends will be highly deflationary no matter what government does, but that’s a longer term issue.