At the March 23 Tasmanian state election, the Liberals won 14 of the 35 lower house seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) three and independents three. This leaves the Liberals four short of the 18 needed for a majority.
The independents are the re-elected left-wing Kristie Johnston, former Labor MP David O’Byrne and anti-salmon farm campaigner Craig Garland.
Before the distribution of preferences began after the postal receipt deadline passed last Tuesday, the Liberals had been expected to win 15 seats, but lost a seat to Garland in Braddon.
This means the JLN alone is not sufficient to get the 18 votes needed for a majority. The Liberals will need JLN and at least one independent, but all three independents have some left-wing views. Labor has already conceded the election.
They can form govt. They just don’t have guaranteed confidence and supply. Means Labor and/or the three indies (likely David or Craig) can extract concessions.