Mirror:
Source: https://t.me/pravdaGerashchenko_en/29597
“If Putin wins in Ukraine, there is real risk that his aggression will not end there. Our support is not charity. It is an investment in our security,” - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
“The only way to reach a just and lasting solution is to convince President Putin that they will not win on the battlefield,” @jensstoltenberg continued.
“And the only way to ensure that President Putin realises that he is not winning on the battlefield is to continue to support Ukraine.”
\1. I don’t see a scenario that would have Putin’s win in Ukraine, even if he conquers the whole country, have him in a more geopolitically advantageous position that he was before 2014. Before 2014 Ukraine was a staunch Russian ally, almost like Belarus. The current situation is like if a Russia-aligned PM got elected in Canada, the US declared war, and would still be fighting having lost most of its army over almost a decade.
But aside from that let me go doomer even harder.
2-4. That would almost certainly result in a civil war or a coup in a very short amount of time. As soon as NATO is not keeping the world order, global commerce, thus the value of the dollar as a reserve currency for global trade up, the US economy will enter a never-before-seen recession, possible hyperinflation, which Trump will need to deflect from. My money is war on Mexico or Cuba. Or both.
5-8. There is a big chance that France would make good on their policy of first strike with their nuclear weapons before Russian soldiers would get too comfortable on European soil. China and the US join in since the Russians start shooting everyone out of force of habit. The Earth is now uninhabitable.
France has been ambivalent about deploying nuclear weapons for anything other than defense of La Patrie, perhaps strategically so. There is also a very real chance of a far right take-over in France, they’re in the pocket of Russia. The far left likely is too. France is unreliable.
The UK however has been quite explicit about guaranteeing eastern Europe. The problem is that Putin consistently underestimates their resolve, and in the event that Ukraine falls, may make the calculation that the UK wouldn’t respond.
That sounds way too familiar for comfort.
Removed by mod
Just one correction. Ukraine was an EU ally and in their pipeline for joining. Yanukovych pulling a flip to sign treaties with Russia instead is what instigated the Maidan uprising.
My bad.
No problem. Most people weren’t following Eastern European stuff back then and there’s been a ton of propaganda thrown around since.
Yeah I was living in Eastern Europe back then so no excuse, but I guess most people don’t follow neighbouring countries’ politics. For example I have no idea what the political landscape in Romania is.