Almost half of Australia’s mortgage holders would be in financial stress if the expected Melbourne Cup interest rate rise goes ahead, paying at least 30% of their income to service their loans.

Households diverting at least 30% of their disposable income to service a mortgage – a standard stress gauge – will account for 48.5% of total borrowers, according to the Australian National University’s Australian tax and welfare system model.

The proportion rose from 26.7% in pre-Covid 2019 to 43.8% at the end of last year, and easily topped the 38.5% share of households in 1993, to be at record levels.