I suppose the answer would largely be No. Not because they’re “backwards” but because the scenario 2a is alleging is that the government is unpopular and brutal, and deposing it is actually the popular public sentiment, but the government stays in power because of the “army” (as a whole combined navy/army because that’s what they had at the time)

A 2a argument would be like saying the current state of china exists because the average citizen doesn’t have a firearm.