It’s a really really hard problem and while lots of really really smart people are trying really really hard to make them happen, it’s still going to take a really really long time and people are going to be really really resistant to the idea while Tesla keeps making the technology look really really bad, which is already starting to result in the government get really really suspicious and pass some really really stupid laws that will really really hurt progress.

Even once we’ve got real robot cars on the road, it’s going to be a niche novel technology for a good while since people are too stupid to realize that we’re far worse drivers. There may be an iPhone moment by some current or new player in the field, making the service sexy and attractive and even fashionable islf not merely desirable; the current prevalence of services like Uber will help with this cultural shift, but it’s way too early to tell exactly what this will look like.

Autonomous vehicles in some shape or form are an inevitability, but it might just end up boring, hamstrung, or relegated to basic operations like forklifts or shuttles.