Global pledges and targets, if reached leave us with 2.1C. That was before the US elected Trump again, which means not pledges and commitments from them. Also obviously pledges and targets have to be reached and that gave us 2.7C. That again was before Trump was elected again and the massive problems the second largest emitter being activly hostile to climate action brings. So it will not just be the US, Trump has already anounced that he is working to sell more US oil and gas, which means making other countries emit more.
So yeah he is probably right. It can be changed, but that is going to a bloody hard journey.
Were those pledges from before or after February 2022?
February 2022 is when Russia expanded their invasion of Ukraine. A lot of the gas that Russia is not exporting to the eu anymore, is now being flared off instead, and I wonder if that is included in those predictions.
All pledges made until November 2024. Also Russia does flare a lot, but that is wasting resources. They prefer to sell it or keep it in the ground. I can not find numbers for 2024, but in 2023 they flared 28bcm of gas and in 2019 it was about 20bcm. So they do flare gas, but not even close to as much as they used to export to the EU.
Global pledges and targets, if reached leave us with 2.1C. That was before the US elected Trump again, which means not pledges and commitments from them. Also obviously pledges and targets have to be reached and that gave us 2.7C. That again was before Trump was elected again and the massive problems the second largest emitter being activly hostile to climate action brings. So it will not just be the US, Trump has already anounced that he is working to sell more US oil and gas, which means making other countries emit more.
So yeah he is probably right. It can be changed, but that is going to a bloody hard journey.
Were those pledges from before or after February 2022?
February 2022 is when Russia expanded their invasion of Ukraine. A lot of the gas that Russia is not exporting to the eu anymore, is now being flared off instead, and I wonder if that is included in those predictions.
All pledges made until November 2024. Also Russia does flare a lot, but that is wasting resources. They prefer to sell it or keep it in the ground. I can not find numbers for 2024, but in 2023 they flared 28bcm of gas and in 2019 it was about 20bcm. So they do flare gas, but not even close to as much as they used to export to the EU.
Thanks for looking it up. It does look a lot less bad than I expected.