I haven’t seen this discussed since the debate, and I’m curious what people think would happen.

(If you’ve seen this twice, I first posted it to a community that only allows links to news items, which rule I read only after creating the post. I removed that post)

The idea came from a post-debate discussion on NPR (National Public Radio), where one of the (professional) political commentators was asked if this was possible and they replied, briefly, that it would have to be done soon.

1. From the analyst’s response, and what I can find online (e.g., here) it seems that it’s not too late for Trump to make this change. Vance would have to voluntarily step down, but I can’t imagine him defying Trump if he was told to beat it.
2. It’s clear Trump isn’t as enamored of Vance as he initially was.
3. I think even hard-core conservatives would agree that Vance hasn’t helped Trump’s campaign, and (as the commentator pointed out) he’s gone off-piste from Trump’s talking points at times.
4. Trump’s core is voting for Trump; the running mate is a side show, and it’s questionable how much Vance appeals to Trump’s base. I believe Trump knows all of this, or at least believes it himself.
5. Trump prides himself on firing people when he doesn’t like the way things are going, and it would be in keeping character for him to make Vance a scapegoat for the polling reversal and his losing the debate.

Therefore, I think this is not just a purely hypothetical question, but a very real possibility. Trump is chaos at the best of times, and this would be an unsurprising action. Regardless of advice he gets from his handlers, he’ll do what he feels like.

So my questions are: first, who’s the most likely choice for a swap; and second, how do you think it’d impact the election?