My final prediction is that between the Arlington Cemetery thing, Cornel West not getting on the ballot there, and no smaller third parties getting in, Virginia’ll stay Blue. Though it’ll be closer than many expect.

Had a perfect hat trick happened 3rd party wise (Which came close: no Randall Terry, RFK got off the ballot, weakened late Libertarian presense. They just needed Cornel West. Plus ideally some random smaller third party, like how NJ got the two small Socialist parties on), plus no Arlington debacle costing suburban votes in the North near Richmond, I might have been willing to consider the possibility of it going red, maybe(about as likely as Michigan, still strong lean blue, but in swing state territory), but not now.

In the timeline where Cornel gets on the ballot, some smaller socialist parties do, and the Arlington Cemetary thing goes perfectly(low key visit, no physical altercation, maybe Trump takes one picture with families and posts it instead of a spectacle) I’d be saying Virginia is a swing state this time.

Ok I read up again.

From what I can tell, Virginia’s redness peaked in 2001(let’s say around 9/11 during the brief spike). It stayed red in the 1990s even against Dixiecrat Bill Clinton. (Though it was relatively stagnant politically from 1998-2001, sort of a plateau)

From that point on it gradually slipped blue. Blue Govna in 2001, midterm losses, more midterm losses, eventually going Blue for Obama. It went from just over 7 points redder than the rest of the country in 2000, to under 6 points redder in 2004, to less than a point and a half redder in 2008, to basically dead even with national in 2012. (IE: Had Romney won a tight victory in 2012 he’d likely carry Virginia by extremely tight margins, after that it was out of play). This trend continued with it being 4 points bluer than the nation in 2016 and 6 points bluer in 2020.

However the increase from 2016-2020(while it looked big on paper, 5 point jump) isn’t actually as big when you look full picture. Namely accounting for third party and Biden’s better national performance and regional performance, 2020 was closer to a 1 point increase. (And in these elections with high third party 2016 and mail in 2020 it’s important to note). I’d actually argue 2018 is around the peak of the trend as they saw solid blue gains that basically finished off hopes of it being a swing state. This is our reverse 9/11 inflection point. 2020 may have been a bit stronger even with everything factored in then 2016 was, but we likely peaked this hill in 2018. Trump was also just generally a point behind generic R there.

2021 showed this with a Republican Governor upset. Sure, he was a popular R without super strong Trump ties and his opponent wasn’t the most well liked, but it shows the trend altering. 2022, Virginia went red seat wise, R gains. 2023, blues barely hold a district and no gains. Now it’s polling comparably if not slightly redder than Michigan.

If we’re comparing 2017-2018 when it was declared solid blue to 2001-2002 ‘sea of red era’ we’re in late 2007-early 2008 territory right now comparison wise. Obama flipped Virginia blue back then. Trump isn’t Obama(as I said, it was still redder than the national average in 2008 and about the same in 2012, a winning Republican wins those years, albeit any winning democrat wins it in 2012 and 2008 they needed to just be an above average democrat which Obama was). So even by that trend it would seemingly be safe blue this time and 2028 would be the danger zone.

BUT, the third party situation comes up again. Namely it’s utterly changed massively, Bush 04, the Obama years, and Trump 2016 saw third party compositions that heavily favored democrats by mostly taking from Republicans. That’s changed this year for the first time since 2000. (mostly due to RFK wiping out the small right coalition and the Libertarians having a internal conflict). Account for that in the math and it’s more like reversed 2010-2012 numbers. It favors blue, but not by much. We’re in Michigan level territory which isn’t quite safe.

I doubt it, but there is evidence the blue tilt hit somewhat of a wall. Most of the other Cyan states either held firm since 2020 (Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine), or gone bluer(Colorado slightly, and New Mexico significantly) New Mexico especially went from being arguably the reddest of the lot in 2016(Governor Gary Johnson made it look bluer than it was, he doesn’t run and it’s razor thin or possibly a Trump win) to one of the bluest outside of Colorado.

Virginia saw a red governor in 2021, no red losses or blue gains since 2018, and 2 red pickups in 2022. Biden did do proportionally better in 2020 than Hillary did, but the Republicans also mostly gave up fighting hard for the state in 2020 compared to 2016 where it was a heavily campaigned swing state(and one of two ‘traditional’ swing states they lost alongside Nevada). The blue tilt there seemingly peaked in 2018-2019 and has slowly reversed.

New Jersey is a bit of a wild card as it’s under polled and unlike these others ones didn’t have a red streak or close calls in the Bush Era or 2016. It’s a usually solid blue state which was a bit weaker than normal in 2020. (While it technically did a point better blue in 2020, adjusting for national performance it actually dropped 2 and a bit points for the democrats). It didn’t elect a Red Governor, but it DID come far closer than anyone expected with Jack Ciattarelli outpreforming polls by 4 or 5 points. It didn’t shift in 2020, but Staten Island did go red(and that’s former NJ land that’s culturally more NJ than NYC or NY) and in 2022 a seat flipped red with no blue gains.

And during the worst week of the Biden Post-Debate fiasco, these two(along with Minnesota) were the only ones with Trump winning polls outnumbering Biden winning polls(Albeit Minnesota was dead even and New Jersey had exactly one poll during this time which is a terrible sample size).

Proportionally speaking I think it’s turning red faster than any other given where it started, but Virginia is still redder, probably Minnesota too. If Virginia went red I’d expect NJ to go the election after, though.

I will say I feel Virginia is redder than Michigan at the moment(which is the blue-est of the swing states by a decent bit)