Preliminary results for the 2024 Indian General election suggest that the Bharatiya Janata Party is set to lose its absolute majority in the lower house of Parliament. However, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) it leads is projected to cross the halfway mark. The opposition INDIA alliance is projected to more than double its seat count, from 92 to around 200 seats.
Regional Trends:
North India
- The opposition alliance is projected to win a narrow majority of seats in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state. Previously, the NDA had 64 out of the state’s 80 seats.
- The NDA is successfully defending all seats in Delhi, Uttarkhand and Himachal Pradesh, but has lost seats in Haryana.
- The contest in Punjab is between two opposition parties, with the Congress holding a narrow lead over the AAP.
- In Jammu and Kashmir, the NDA and INDIA are leading in two seats each, with an independent candidate taking the final seat. Ladakh, too, has an independent taking the lead.
West India
- The NDA is successfully defending almost all seats in Madhya Pradesh and Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat.
- The opposition is winning Maharashtra from the NDA, and making gains in Rajasthan.
East India
- The NDA has retained most seats in Bihar and Chattisgarh, but is losing some seats in Jharkhand.
- Both the NDA and the INDIA have failed to make inroads into West Bengal, where the Trinamool Congress holds its ground.
- The NDA has swept Odisha, previously ruled by the BJD, a regional party.
- Results in the north-east are mixed, with the NDA holding the plains and regional parties and INDIA making gains in the hill states.
- In particular, the opposition is leading in both seats in Manipur, which went through ethnic violence over the last year.
South India
- The NDA has retained its majority in Karnataka, won Andhra Pradesh from the neutral YSRCP, and made inroads into Telangana (at the expense of the neutral BRS).
- The opposition retained all but one seat in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, and made inroads into Karnataka and Telangana.
You forgot to add this - three controversial independent candidates have gained candidacy:
- Amritpal Singh - a Sikh separatist
- Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa - son of Indira Gandhi’s assassin, and a hardliner Sikh
- Engineer Rashid - leader of a separatist party
Two of them - Amritpal and Rashid, may not be able to exercise their rights as members of the Lok Sabha, as they’re behind the bars.
Unless the NDA fall short of a majority, would independents even matter that much? It might send a bad signal regarding violence in politics, but that’s about it.
Party projections based on current leads
(alliance in brackets - N for NDA (government), U for INDIA (opposition), I for independent)
National Parties:
- The Bharatiya Janata Party (N) is expected to lose around 60 of its 303 seats, finishing with around 240 seats.
- The Indian National Congress (U) is expected to nearly double its current tally of 52, finishing just under 100 seats.
- The Communist Party of India - Marxist (U) is expected to pick up one more seat, going from 3 to 4.
- The Aam Aadmi Party (U) is expected to pick up two more seats, from 1 to 3.
- The Bahujan Samaj Party (I) and the National People’s Party (I) are expected to win no seats.
Major Regional Parties
- Samajwadi Party (U) 5 -> 38 (+33)
- Trinamool Congress (I) 22 -> 29 (+7)
- Dravida Munneta Kazhakam (U) 24 -> 22 (-2)
- Telegu Desam Party (N) 3 -> 16 (+13)
- Janata Dal United (N) 16 -> 12 (-4)
