A lack of data on how consumers are responding to monetary policy could lead the Reserve Bank to raise rates into a recession. And what if that's difficult to escape? It's a critical economic question right now, writes David Taylor.
There’s no doubt in my mind we’re heading to recession. I would argue that many sectors are already there. We’ve seen it being ‘choppy’ for some time now - and that’s going to get worse before it gets worse.
Keating did it right years ago with the ‘recession we had to have’. No one’s game enough to say it anymore. We do need one in many ways. But it doesn’t need to mean the end of the world for people.
I’ve been through a few of these now so I would reassure that if you’re a bit younger and have recently bought a home are seeing that mortgage weighing over you…don’t worry too much. Even in the worst of the GFC we had time cut back (and pay) in pretty secure jobs, but it’s not the end of the world. Definitely tighten belts and get some savings as you can. Doing this makes it a self fulfilling prophecy in some ways, but better to be ahead of the curve.
I can’t see it being a huge crash though. There’s still plenty of oldies with huge savings that will spend. Housing might mellow but, like during the GFC, the affordable end of the market never dips for long.
There’s no doubt in my mind we’re heading to recession. I would argue that many sectors are already there. We’ve seen it being ‘choppy’ for some time now - and that’s going to get worse before it gets worse.
Keating did it right years ago with the ‘recession we had to have’. No one’s game enough to say it anymore. We do need one in many ways. But it doesn’t need to mean the end of the world for people.
I’ve been through a few of these now so I would reassure that if you’re a bit younger and have recently bought a home are seeing that mortgage weighing over you…don’t worry too much. Even in the worst of the GFC we had time cut back (and pay) in pretty secure jobs, but it’s not the end of the world. Definitely tighten belts and get some savings as you can. Doing this makes it a self fulfilling prophecy in some ways, but better to be ahead of the curve.
I can’t see it being a huge crash though. There’s still plenty of oldies with huge savings that will spend. Housing might mellow but, like during the GFC, the affordable end of the market never dips for long.