Copying my comment from a different conversation
They’re going to open a lot of the cluster bomb shells and use the armour piercing shapped bomblets as drone munitions.
US cluster bombs have 88 bomblets inside each shell. They also have a 1% to 3% dud rate on the bomblets, so that’s 2 to 3 duds per shell. Duds that turn into landmines. Use 10 shells on an area and you’ve suddenly laid 30 mines in that area. Mines that you have no idea where they’re placed.
So Ukrain can’t use the cluster bombs on any area they intend to occupy or traverse. They can’t use them on trench lines, they can’t use them on fields they would need to drive over.
I believe they will be used, but a lot of them will used for drone ammunition.
No. That we’re supplying 155mm cluster bombs proves what the problem is fundamentally.
Ukraine is using far more 155mm ammo than anyone ever expected. USA sent hundreds-of-thousands of rounds last year. When USA’s stockpiles ran low, we bought out South Korean’s stock pile and gave it to the Ukrainians. When that’s running low, we suddenly send cluster bombs that were going to be disposed of.
Ukraine’s got shell hunger and there’s not enough 155mm production to support Ukraine. That’s the problem.
3% is miniscule compared to the 40% reported for the Russian munitions. Given the quantity of DPICMs and their far lower dud rate, it’s basically just an accounting error at that point.
It’s also a false equivalence to compare DPICM vs no DPICM – the longer the war drags on, the more low-grade munitions will be used from deeper stockpiles which will inevitably have a substantially higher dud rate.
I have no problem with Ukraine using the cluster munitions, I’m just pointing out that 5 shells will lay an area with 15 duds turned into landmines. Ukraine will be careful where they use them.
They also can and will use some for drone bombs.
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The math you’re using is a tad hyperbolic. 1 to 3% of 88 bomblets is not 2-3 duds, in fact it is less than 1 to 3. If you’re thinking about 10 shells we can do math with better precision, and the result is less than 30, it is 9 to 26. Nevertheless, the failure rate I’ve seen elsewhere is 2.76%, so for 10 shells that is 24 duds. At this stage you might think 24, 30, it’s almost the same… But also dud bomblets are not equivalent to mines. On the short term they are most definitely not like mines. On the long term, on the context of managing their danger, they can be thought of as mines, like mines left on a field for a long time. Some blow up, some don’t. Nobody wants them on their yard.
In all cases I’d use them in my yard if it helped me fight a murderous sadistic thief out of my stuff. If only just to disincentivize their murderous sadistic thieving actions from attacking my neighbours and other people.
I feel my comment is not being taken as I intended. Ukrain and Russia have both been using Russian cluster bombs all along. Russian ones supposedly have a 40% failure rate.
With the US shells they will be using them selectively, just as they have been with their old ones. They can crack open the US ones and drop the individual ones with drones as well.
It’s a good thing they will have the US bombs now. It’s better all around.
Yea, I did assume something else. Assumptions are always a problem; they seem so obvious…
Thanks for your considerate answer.
I don’t think the cluster ammo willl be used any other way than with a howitzer. I don’t think there is a shortage of production of grenades. A shortage of shells, yes, and it might just be to mitigate that. Might. That would not be great news for Ukraine.
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I’d like to be a fly on the wall in the Soviet engineering house that designed them.
Engineer: So what failure rate can we accept?
General: I don’t know, it won’t be perfect, but I guess make sure that most of the bomblets detonate.
Engineer: [Technically complies]
