“The de facto relocation of Russian forces, the Wagner Group, to Belarus, together with its head Yevgeny Prigozhin, is underway. These are very negative signals for us,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said.
I get the desire to strengthen the eastern edge of NATO countries like Poland and Lithuania… But I think Russia/Wagner have bigger priorities at the moment. I don’t think they went to Belarus just to ignore Ukraine and launch a hopeless attack on the entirety of NATO.
No, they went to Belarus so that Lukashenka can feel more secure in his tyranny there and therefore spare more resources for supporting the attempt by Russia to conquer Ukraine
Yeah i doubt priggy gives a fuck about anyone but himself. It’s more likely that they are positioning in Belarus to zerg kyiv. Putin’s last try at taking the capital.
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Thing is, given the ideological bent of the Wagner forces and the apparent lack of discipline in the Russian forces, there is a reasonable concern that there would be unofficial violence on the borders.
Unofficial Violence is my new band name
What if it was all a plot to move nuclear weapons to Belarus?
Prigozhin declares mutiny and starts marching towards Moscow. Enroute, they pickup the goods.
Then they declare “we’re going to exile in Belarus” and use the exiting convoy as cover/protection.They’ve already moved nuclear weapons to Belarus with their regular forces.
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And even if they wanted to put on a show, for whatever reason, they wouldn’t take it so far that they shoot down their own planes.
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